AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, August 08, 2016
***** Corn up 1/2 to 1; soybean futures gain 10 1/4 to 15; Chicago wheat fractionally changed. *****

   # Wheat had an active trading day with volume exceptionally high.  Corn volume was a touch above average while soybean volume was slightly lower.  Volume would be expected to grow as the week goes on while traders make wagers on the Friday crop report. 
   # Another strong soybean sale flashed across the USDA’s daily sales reporting system.  China agreed to take another 246,000 tons for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing season.  
   # A daily corn sales announcement was also made today.  162,569 tons will head to Mexico for new-crop delivery.  Mexico remains this year’s top-buyer of U.S. corn, overtaking the perennial leader Japan.
   # December corn futures failed to reach above technical resistance from their 10-day moving average.  Last week’s $3.38 1/2 high is also close by to serve as minor resistance.  
   # A cold front is expected to move into the Upper Midwest this week and bring rainfall with it.  Drier conditions should develop across the majority of the Corn Belt by the end of the week.  
   # Grain inspections were mostly robust again this week.  Corn and soybean shipments were up over the previous report at 1.45 million tons and 972,000 tons, respectively.  Wheat inspections were low at 376,000 tons versus 670,000 a week ago. 
   # Weekly Crop Progress numbers are due out shortly with analysts expecting to see steady to slightly lower ratings for the U.S. corn and soybean crops.  The crop condition ratings will start to turn less influential from here on out, especially for corn, which should begin featuring the usual rating declines into harvest.  The corn crop was rated 76 percent Good or Excellent last week with soybeans at 72 percent G/E.  
   # Traders expect to see cuts made to the South American production estimates this Friday.  Analysts look for Brazil’s corn crop to drop 2 million tons from the 70 mt July estimate while the country’s soybean crop falls fractionally from 96.5 mt.  The Argentine corn and soybean crops should also be cut fractionally.  
   # Oil futures rallied on thoughts involving potential production cuts from OPEC.  Nearby WTI crude futures were stopped short by resistance from their 20-day moving average.           

***** Live cattle futures down $0.25 to $0.87; feeders steady to $0.65 higher; August hogs down $0.35 with December up $0.65. *****

   # Early strength for cattle futures was quickly met by profit-taking.  Buyers enjoy a stronger technical picture but have little in the way of fundamental motivation to be excited about.          
   # Bear spreading helped boost October and December hog futures while traders found little fresh fundamental input.  Wholesale pork prices were flat at midday while cash markets were quiet.