AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, August 08, 2016
***** Corn up 1 to 3 ahead of the break; soybean futures gain 9 to 11; Chicago wheat steady to 4 1/2 higher.  *****

   # It is a relatively active overnight trade for the grains with soy the best performer.  Corn futures have opened a three-cent range while Chicago wheat futures feature an active spread trade.  
   # Friday’s Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC showed funds adding nearly 40,000 new corn shorts to bring the net-short position to 104,432 contracts.  Money managers liquidated 10,901 long soybean contracts while adding 4,450 shorts to leave them net-long the oilseed by 106,338 contracts.
   # Grain futures trade this week with anticipation of the Friday crop report the primary influence.  Analysts polled by Bloomberg have yield estimates that average out to 170.6 bushels per acre corn and 47.6 bpa soybeans. 
   # The majority of the Corn Belt went without rain this weekend.  Rainfall totals of mostly 1-1.5 inches fell over Kansas and SW Missouri, less in areas throughout the Delta.  
   # NOAA’s weekend run of 6-10 and 8-14 day maps lean cooler early, warmer late and drier throughout.  The weekend maps come without interpretation or confidence ratings from the forecasters and can vary widely from the Monday run.  
   # September soybeans are working up against technical resistance from $10.  The November contract is moving up toward the July 29 high at $10.06.  A look at Fibonacci retracement levels brings $10.35 into play as a potential corrective target.   
   # Crude oil futures are up in early trading as OPEC officials announce a meeting to be held next month for discussion on market direction and any potential needed response.  Hedge funds remain net-long crude oil futures and options, but the number of contrary short bets has reached a new high at more than 218,000 contracts.  
   # Traders are treating Friday’s strong jobs report as a sign that the U.S. economy is improving in such a way that might encourage a late-year interest rate hike from the Fed.     

***** Cattle futures likely to start steady/firmer; hogs look to open firmer on technical buying  *****

   # Fund traders have been buyers on the recent move up for cattle futures, having brought their net-long up by 12,000 contracts through Tuesday of last week.  Stronger-looking charts are starting to help out, with October live futures having settled ahead of their 100-day moving average for the first time since March.                   
   # Speculators are still jumping on the short side of the hog market.  There remains little to say for hogs expect for that, quite simply, prices have headed lower as consumption cannot keep up with production and exports are not helping out by as much as expected.