AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, August 17, 2016
***** Corn up 2 1/4 to 2 3/4 cents; soybean futures climb 7 3/4 to 11; Chicago wheat up 2 1/2 to 4. *****

   # Market participants finally got a look at those soybean deals that had been rumored to take place over the weekend.  USDA’s flash sale system reported 381,000 tons of soybeans sold to China for 2016/17 delivery.  
   # A string of daily export announcements and the related market enthusiasm has traders eager to see tomorrow’s weekly sales report.  The trade expects to see new corn sales near 1 million tons with soybean commitments adding up to between 1.4 and 1.8 million tons.   
   # Following up NOAA’s La Nina update that called a winter event 55-60 percent likely, Australian meteorologists have released fresh predictions.  Two of their models look for La Nina to develop this fall while another two of eight considered look for the phenomenon to be with us by the end of winter.  
   # Talk of Brazilian soy crushers being idled in response to poor margins is having traders re-evaluate U.S. production potential.  Domestic processors have fallen behind pace to meet the USDA’s current 1.9 billion bushel crush goal for 2015/16 after disappointing output July.
   # The recent stretch of rainy weather combines with an extended outlook for cooler temperatures to put into doubt previously-held expectations for early start to harvest in the Midwest. 
   # Grain traders are eager to take a look at Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.  Placements have been running high and in April, May, and June totaled 107, 110, and 103 percent of the respective year-ago tallies. USDA’s recent estimates show increased substitution of feed wheat into the mix to be likely in the marketing year ahead. 
   # A close on the high was technically strong for December corn futures.  The contract is approaching the top end of a compressing pair of Bollinger Bands, which could precede a breakout.  Minor resistance at $3.46 is still in place.  
   # Traders sifted through minutes from the July Fed meeting and decided the comments had a slightly dovish bias.  Treasuries were up as lower rate hike odds were priced in and the dollar index fell flat.     

***** Live cattle futures fall $0.37 to $1; feeders down $0.35 to $0.65; hogs rally $1.15 to $1.30. ***** 

   # Cattle futures were on the defensive after light cash volume started trading at steady to softer levels on Tuesday.  Sellers remain cautious ahead of the Cattle on Feed report scheduled for Friday afternoon.    
   # October hogs found support from their 10-day moving average as sellers had little interest in pressing futures much further into oversold territory.  Gains were extended upon the reporting of better wholesale pork prices.