AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, August 17, 2016
***** Corn futures flat; soybeans up 3 cents; Chicago wheat down 1 1/4. ***** 

   # Corn trades a fair amount of volume overnight but stays flat within a two-cent range.  Soybeans trade much lighter volume and chop around within a 10-cent range.  No major moves are noted in outside markets. 
   # Rains this week have been generally favorable for filling crops around the Midwest.  Totals were heaviest in Southern Illinois and the Missouri Bootheel.
   # Scattered showers are expected to pop up again for a southwest-to-northeast band from the Gulf through to Ohio.  The two-week outlook maps still have Midwest temperatures running cooler than normal but also lean drier than they did on yesterday’s run.    
   # U.S. wheat prices have struggled to gain traction despite all of the crop troubles reported in Europe.  Last Friday’s USDA crop report featured a 9 million ton cut to the European production estimate due to wet weather.  Lower yield and lessened quality should help send additional trade business to the U.S. 
   # Soy processors in Brazil are idling some of their crush plants as they face competition for sourcing beans from the export sector and also have margins pressured by lower product values that have followed from lower feed demand.  
   # December corn futures are finding support overnight from their 20-day moving average.  Tuesday’s high matched Monday’s at $3.39 1/4 and serves minor resistance before greater pushback would be found from $3.50 and $3.80.  
   # Outside markets may be quiet for now, but they will be expected to feature some action later today when minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting are released.  Traders are all over the place with their expectations for will-we/won’t-we have an interest rate hike in 2016.

***** October live cattle open with a test of support from their 100-day moving average; hogs look to start weaker on follow-through selling. *****

   # There is some lessened optimism over cash cattle market potential at the start of the week, but little may trade ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.  No consensus exists among analysts over what to expect out this month’s placements number, with estimates ranging from 95 – 109 percent of the year-ago total.  
   # Hog slaughters still run high enough to keep the outlook for pork negative enough to weigh further on price.  A bearish outside day leaves October futures technically vulnerable.  The contract trades not far removed from its lifetime low of $57.57.