AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, August 18, 2016
***** Corn up 1 3/4 to 2 3/4 cents; soybean futures down 1 to up 1 1/2; Chicago wheat up 1 to 1 1/4. *****

   # Grain export tallies were strong again this week.  New-crop sales were 41.1 million bushels corn, 58.7 million beans and 17.9 wheat. A daily corn sale of 101,600 tons of corn was made to an unknown buyer for 2016/17 delivery.
   # Soyoil squeaked out a gains after a weaker start to make for nine higher closes in a row.  Traders are questioning the whether or not the recent bean rally has any substance since gains have been behind the lead of soyoil futures and not what is considered a more-trustworthy guide in meal.  
   # Five straight higher closes put December corn futures above their 10- and 20-day moving averages.  The contract approaches technical resistance from a July 28 high at $3.46.  
   # Trading volume has been relatively low this week.  Hedgers are less active as farmers are reluctant sellers and speculators are not finding much in the way of fresh fundamental news now that the August crop report is behind us.  
   # The latest round of sales from China’s corn reserves was met with buyer interest for only 12 percent of what was offered.  A large portion of the corn stockpile is thought to be of unusable quality.  There remains uncertainty over what to expect out of a soybean auction planned for Friday. Market bears suggest the auctions could supplant a small portion of import needs.  
   # The afternoon run of NOAA’s two-week weather maps keeps cooler temperatures in the mix while outlining a wetter forecast for the West, drier for the East.  Confidence ratings in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are low at 2 out of a 5-scale.  
   # Oil rallied on a dollar drop and on reports from Nigeria about violence in the country disrupting output and trade flow.  Nearby WTI crude futures are up 23 percent from the August 3rd low. 

***** Live cattle futures fall $1.47 to $1.82; feeders down $1.55 to $1.80; hogs off $0.30 to $0.47. ***** 

   # Cattle futures headed lower as more cash volume developed at a steady/slightly weaker $118 live.      
   # Cash hogs were back lower and so hog futures were too.  The technicals suggest the bears are less willing to be aggressive sellers at these depressed levels, but the fundamentals are giving very little encouragement to the bulls.