AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, August 19, 2016
***** Corn futures down 1 1/2 ahead of the morning break; soybeans off 13 to 14; Chicago wheat down 1 1/2 to 2 1/2. *****

   # A weaker soy complex weighs on the grains overnight.  November soybeans trade back below $10 but have so far held up above Thursday’s low.  
   # Hedge fund managers were active corn buyers at the end of Thursday’s session.  The funds are estimated to hold a net corn short near 125,000 contracts while being net-long 115,000 soybeans and short 115,000 Chicago wheat.  
   # Russian government officials are considering a temporary removal of taxes on wheat exports as growers there haul in another bumper crop.  The government usually keeps some sort of export duty in place to help manage prices in the domestic food market.
   # Soyoil futures were again starting the session off by making a technical correction.  A pullback could turn out to be a shallow one if higher Asian palm prices continue to support the rest of the edible oil market.  Palm oil supplies in Asia remain tight after El Nino got in the way of production last season. 
   # The Central Plains states are expected to receive the most of showers forecasted for the next seven days.  The 6-10 day outlook has a parched Ohio and the rest of the Eastern Corn Belt leaning dry.
   # Corn basis was flat in the country yesterday with average Central Illinois basis at 16 cents under September futures.  The state average price for Iowa was reported at 35 under.        
   # The USDA daily reporting system included a corn sale on Thursday, no soybean sales.  The 8:00am central report has become more of a market event lately as large sales continue to show up.  USDA reports all single grains sales of more than 100,000 tons.
   # Dollar index futures are making a moderate rebound after dropping further on Thursday.  The dollar move take some wind out of the sail for oil, but crude keeps support on the speculation that OPEC could possibly agree to a production cut when the group meets next month.  

***** Live cattle futures likely to stabilize ahead of the Feed report; hogs look to benefit from technical buying. *****

   # Cattle futures have taken on a weaker tone coming into the end of the week due to softer cash prices.  This afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report will give guidance to next week’s trade.  Analysts look for total on-feed to come in near 101.4 percent of a year ago.  There is much disagreement on what to expect out of placements, with guesses ranging from 98.5-103.2 percent.      
   # Nothing new for hogs with sellers not risking a further short-selling push down at these technically oversold levels while buyers can find nothing positive to take out of current fundamental environment.