AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, August 23, 2016
***** Corn futures ended mostly 5 lower, soybeans 1-3 lower, with Chicago wheat 7-8 lower. ***** 

   # The weekly crop condition were probably the most discussed numbers in the corn and soybean trade.  The 1 point jump in good/excellent ratings for corn surprised nearly everyone.  Even the steady rating for soybeans were a mild negative.  
   The Pro-Farmer tour results from the first day were a little lower than might have been expected, but were mostly ignored with the trade expecting better numbers as the tour moves into the heart of the Corn Belt.  The S. Dakota corn yield 149.78 was about 15 bu. less than last year.  Ohio’s 148.96 yield matched last year, but they had a poor crop a year ago.  Soybean pod counts were a little disappointing too.  They will release Ind. and Neb. numbers tonight. 
   Stats Canada released their latest production estimates.  There weren’t any surprises, but the 30.5 mmt. wheat forecast represents a 10% jump from last year.  The canola forecast, 17.0 mmt. matches last year, and was about as expected too. 
   For the first time in a few days, there were no export sales to announce today, but there’s still a lot of soybean business going on in the background.  
   A private group raised their forecasts for the Ukrainian crop, with the total output increased 1.7 mmt. to 62.7.  Both wheat and corn production numbers were revised up.
   There is some talk about heat for France/Germany, and possibly into the Black Sea region that could impact the corn crops slightly, but the trade mostly ignored. 
   Egypt issued a tender for wheat last night, but it was abruptly cancelled even as traders were negotiating the purchase price. No reason was given for the cancelation.  
   Our short term forecasts have a weather system sweeping across the Midwest the next couple of days with light, moderate amounts of moisture.  Temps will be normal/cool.  The longer range forecasts show moisture in the western Corn Belt and Great Plains, with temps normal/cool, especially to the west and south.  Warm temps are slated to return according to the longer range forecast, but the situation does pave the way for good conditions to plant the winter wheat crop.
   Corn basis was is showing signs of slippage with the harvest fast approaching.  Soybean basis is somewhat stronger because of the demand ingredients.         
   Financial/forex markets were quiet again Tuesday, with traders looking ahead to Friday’s GDP data and Yellen’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium. 
***** Live cattle futures ended $0.17 to $0.75 lower, feeders ended $0.57-$1.10 lower, with hogs $0.62 to $0.27 lower.   ***** 
   Wholesale beef prices ended slightly lower, with choice at $200.39.  Cash cattle trading was limited, with the few traded just slightly lower. The biggest negative was the jump in freezer inventories, 3% higher than they were a month ago.  That called demand into question. Still, cattle prices have a seasonal tendency to move up from a late summer low.      
   Wholesale pork prices ended near steady, with the #2 cutout at $75.71.  Cash hog prices were ever so slightly lower.  The 2% rise in freezer inventories was the most discussed item in this market too.