AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Wednesday, August 24, 2016
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are lower to start the day; soybeans 3-6 lower, corn 1-2 lower, with wheat 1-2 lower. *****

   # The early week decline in wheat prices has set the tone in the grains this week.  Minor upgrades for the Russian and Ukraine crops combined with the easing anxiety about the French/German crops to press prices lower.  There are some emerging ideas that the Russian crop, while good, may be overblown. Yesterday’s 30.5 mmt. Canadian crop estimate only added to the negative environment.
   # Pro Farmer reported results of their tour through Ind. and Nebraska fields.  Their Ind. Corn yield, 173.42 bu. was higher than last year’s subpar crop, but less than the tour forecast in 2014.  The Neb. corn yield, 158.6 bu., was lower than the tour found the last two years.  The biggest difference was the lower ear weight.  Indiana’s ear weight was lower than 2 years ago.  Pod counts in both states were up, but weren’t necessarily what we would call stellar. 
   # The other notable factor still being discussed early this morning was yesterday’s abrupt cancelation of an Egyptian buying tender.  There’s still no comment as to why the tender was cancelled. 
   # Europe is going to have some extreme heat the next few days that could undermine potential for their corn crop.  It’s possible some of the heat could reach Black Sea regions, having some impact on Ukraine’s corn crop. 
   # China’s July soybean imports were just under 7.8 mmt., slightly higher than the preliminary numbers from early month. Imports this year have been 46.3 mmt., nearly 4% higher on the year. 
   # Weather has receded somewhat from the focus.  The midweek weather system is a bit of a negative.  The longer range outlooks are showing temps moving back to normal/warmer than normal.  And the above normal moisture is receding, except for the S. Plains. 
   # The Dollar is slightly firmer today, with traders still mostly waiting on Yellen’s speech on Friday. The biggest news was yesterday’s slightly better number on home sales, but it’s importance was muted. And minor world economic data has been mostly ignored.

***** Cattle should start steady/weak; lean hogs mixed/lower. *****  

   # Wholesale beef was slightly lower Tuesday.  Most of the negatives came from the higher monthly freezer inventories. But with futures at a discount to cash, the interest in chasing the short side is muted.
   # Wholesale pork was near steady.  Cash hog prices were steady/weak, but didn’t have much trend. Like beef, a larger cold storage inventory weighed on futures, but is somewhat inconsequential.  But with a short slaughter week ahead, hog prices could be temporarily soft.