AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Thursday, August 25, 2016
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are lower to start the day; soybeans 6-7 lower, corn fractionally lower, with wheat 1-2 higher. *****

   # Their results for Illinois.  The corn yield, 193.50 bu., was 3 bu. under their 2014 results. And, they do not travel through Southern Illinois, a place where the crop is thought to be nowhere nearly as good as it was in 2014. The soybean pod count 1318.09 was slightly higher than their 2014 data.  They wrap up their tour in Minnesota today and will release Minn. and Iowa data this evening. 
   # Export sales will be the other big variable for the markets today.  Soybean sales were just over 2.0 mmt., well beyond expectations. Corn sales were 1.13 mmt., at the high end of expectations.  Wheat sales, 379,700 ton, were a little disappointing.  Soymeal sales, 203,800 tons, were mid-range.
   # The trade is starting to take note of the lull in soybean export sales on the daily USDA reporting system.  Some are questioning demand, but today’s large weekly sales implies there’s a lot more business occurring in the background than that realize. 
   # Russian grain harvest is 59% complete, with 86.9 mmt. collected.  Of that, 58.9 mmt. is wheat, 63% harvested. 
   # The wheat trade is still talking about Egypt’s wheat tender cancelation.  AT the same time, there were tender withdrawals from Jordan and Syria.  And, the talk about the elimination of the Russian export tax continues. 
   # In the wheat market, look for increasing attention to be paid to deliveries against futures on first notice day for September contracts.  Also, there’s more attention being paid to winter wheat planting, set to kick off in the next few weeks.  A worse ratio to corn than last year argues for some further reduction.
   # Soybean oil has turned softer again.  It had been the upside leader in the complex, but the weakening palm oil prices have been undermining it. Palm oil prices skidded again in Kuala Lumpur even with stronger Malaysian exports. 
   # There will be some focus on Brazil today and the direction of the Real.  Their Senate is expected to move into the final stages of the impeachment proceedings against President Rousseff.
   # Weather has receded somewhat from the focus.  The midweek weather system is a bit of a negative.  The longer range outlooks are showing temps moving back to normal/warmer than normal.  The forecasts are starting to turn drier as well,  in the Southern Plains in particular.  That could play into the picture for wheat planting.
   # The Dollar slipped slightly today, with traders mostly waiting on Yellen’s speech tomorrow, along with the latest U.S. GDP numbers. 

***** Cattle should start steady/weak; lean hogs mixed/lower. *****

   # Wholesale beef was near steady, but cash cattle traded slightly lower.  Much of the cash trade was at $114-$116. 
   # Wholesale pork was near steady.  Cash hog prices were steady/weak, but didn’t have much trend. For both, a shortened slaughter week is on the horizon.