AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Friday, August 26, 2016
**** Corn futures ended 7 lower, soybeans 7-8 lower, with Chicago wheat 14-17 lower. ***** 

   The Pro-Farmer tour results were the dominant feature in the grain pits to end the week.  The Iowa(188.17) and Minn(182.32) corn yields were as good as expected, with the Iowa yield at a new high.  Minnesota’s was off a little from last year’s record.  The soybean pod counts for both high, basically matching the levels the tour noted the last two years.  After the close Friday, Pro Farmer offered their own forecasts for this year’s crops, 14.728 bln. bu. of corn at 170.s yield.  The soybeans were better, with their forecast higher than USDA, 4.093 bln. at a 49.2 bu. yield.
   The other big news of the day was Fed Chairman Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium  In it she implied the economic structure was working toward allowing them to raise rates soon.  The Dollar jumped on the news with other markets weakening, in particular equities and financials.    
   The revised 2nd qtr. GDP number was a part of the mix Friday too.  It was revised down slightly to a 1.1% growth rate.  While that was not unexpected, it did undermine confidence in the economy.  
   Egypt did complete some wheat business at week’s end.  7 companies offered them wheat cargoes, with Egypt buying 180,000 from the Russians.  Considering the trouble and volatility in their activities this week, that may have been notable. 
   China sold a few soybeans from govt. stocks on Friday, with the amount being less than consequential.  Even corn sales of recent have been tepid.  They plan to end these sales in September before the new crop harvest.  They don’t want to interfere with producer selling.  This is the first year where the government will not offer a support price to producers, thus allowing prices to become more market driven.  Amid this there’s growing thought that much of their inventory may never come to market because of quality.
   Forecasts for warmer, drier weather remain in the mix, with above normal moisture occurring in the northern Corn Belt and N. Plains.  That should help move corn rapidly to maturity.  There was some talk about Cent. Ill. corn already starting the dry down process.  The drier pattern is strongest in the S. Plains which may slow the early pace of wheat planting, and might help discouraging planting wheat, along with low prices.
   Corn basis was is showing signs of slippage with the harvest fast approaching.  Soybean basis is somewhat stronger because of the demand ingredients. 
***** Live cattle futures ended $2.12 to $1.27 lower, feeders mostly ended $2.15-$1.00 lower, with hogs $2.62 to $1.12 higher.  *****  

   Wholesale beef prices ended near steady, with choice at $199.48.  Cash cattle slipped slightly in a moderate trade, with live at $110-$113 and dressed at $179. The lower cash prices were the bigger downward drag on futures.  Packers are making money slaughtering cattle.
   Wholesale pork prices ended near steady, with the #2 cutout at $76.39.  Cash hog prices were still soft at week’s end, but the complex typically moves seasonally higher in September.  Packers are making good money slaughtering hogs.