AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Friday, August 26, 2016
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are narrowly mixed to start the day; soybeans 2-3 higher, corn fractionally higher, with wheat fractionally lower. *****

   # Pro Farmer wrapped up their crop tour Thursday night with some impressive numbers.  Notably, they projected a new record yield for Iowa, 188 bu.  Their data implies record ear weights for the state.  Minn. corn was projected at 182, off 8 bu. from last year’s record.  Soybean pod counts for both states, 1224 and 1107 respectively, were close to last year’s counts.  Pro Farmer will release their expected production after the close this afternoon. 
   # Descartes Labs released their latest corn yield forecast, placing the expected yield at 170.4 bu. They haven’t projected soybean yields yet. 
   # The trade talk in the wake of the crop tour seems to be sparking some “whisper talk” that the soybean yield could hit 50 bu. this year.  
   # The latest report on the French corn crop shows 63% of the crop is rated in good/excellent condition.  It will be interesting to see how this rating might change after this week’s heat.
   # There’s a lot of turmoil still occurring within the Egyptian wheat purchasing division.  There’s a potential scandal surrounding the level of govt. purchases from their own producers.  Amid that, they did submit a tender to buy wheat overnight.  
   # Palm oil fell again overnight, which may keep downward pressure on soyoil.  Prices for palm and soyoil are being undermined by weaker sunflower oil and eroding crude oil prices.  Soyoil had rising from 30 cents to near 35 cents over the last month, setting it up for some downside correction. 
   # This week’s showers keep moisture levels across much of the Corn Belt near optimal levels.  The longer range forecasts project a warmer, drier pattern, but that shouldn’t be threatening to the crops at this time.  Showers in Kansas keep their moisture levels good going into the period to plant the new wheat crop.  There’s already emerging discussion about how much winter wheat planting might fall again this year. 
   # The equity and forex markets are looking ahead to Fed Chairman Yellen’s speech this morning.  U.S. 2nd qtr. GDP was revised slightly lower to a 1.1% growth rate.  Economists expect growth to improve from that rate this year, but the tepid growth rate is a concern to all. 

***** Cattle should start steady/weak; lean hogs mixed/lower. *****  

   # Wholesale beef was near steady, with a slight downward trend.  Cash cattle slipped slightly lower yesterday with live at $113, and dressed at $179-$180 
   # Wholesale pork was slightly higher, but cash hog prices were slightly lower.  Wholesale demand for both meats remains somewhat tepid, maybe unusually so ahead of a holiday weekend.