AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, August 30, 2016
***** Corn futures fractionally changed at the break; soybeans flat to 3 1/2 cents lower; Chicago wheat up 2 1/2 to 3. ***** 

   # Fresh news is limited and so grain futures trade tight ranges overnight with volume low.  
   # December corn’s move to new lifetime lows put the contract into technically oversold territory.  Monday’s settlement had it below its lower 20-day Bollinger Band with a reading on the relative strength index (14-day) of 28.4.
   # Monday’s slippage produced a bearish signal line crossover on the moving-average-convergence-divergence (MACD) for November soybean futures.  Intraday strength was resisted by the contract’s 200-day moving average.  There remains comfortable room above the August 2 low at $$9.43 for now. 
   # Corn crop ratings held steady at a historically-elevated 75 percent Good or Excellent, against expectations for the beginning of a seasonal dip in conditions.  Illinois stands at 85 percent G/E with only Wisconsin better at 87 percent.  Iowa corn was rated 83 percent G/E.  Maturity progress was called 9 percent versus 8 percent last year and a five-year average of 11 percent. 
   # Soybean crop conditions improved last week by one point to 73 percent G/E.  Soybeans dropping leaves were 5 percent versus 8 percent LY and a 5 percent average.
   # Fund traders still hold a net soybean long above 100,000 contracts while estimated to be net-short corn by 175,000 contracts.  The managed money wheat short is near 125,000 contracts.  
   # Meteorologists are keeping their eyes on a couple of tropical depressions that could bring wet weather to Gulf and Southeastern states.  For the Corn Belt, the 6-10 day outlook leans wetter in the Northwest, drier SE.  
   # Outside markets trade quietly this morning.  Traders are talking of a slightly higher chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in September, but odds of that are still all together low.  Stock index futures are flat as investors take on some worry about U.S. corporate earnings as of late.      

***** Live cattle futures likely to correct from oversold territory; hogs look to start the session steady to stronger. *****

   # Cattle futures spent Monday pricing in weaker cash prices from late last week.  An weaker start for wholesale prices puts a bearish spin on cash expectations for this week, but showlists are expected to be smaller.
   # Better wholesale pork prices supported the front end of the hog futures curve on Monday but the bulls are wary as cash prices remain depressed.