AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, August 31, 2016
***** Corn futures down fractionally at the break; soybeans off 5 1/4 to 7 1/4 cents; wheat up fractionally. ***** 

   # Last day of August and First Notice Day for September grain futures.  There were 330 wheat deliveries and 440 corn; no soybeans.  
   # Corn basis is backing off in parts of the Midwest as harvest approaches.  The average for central Illinois basis held at 16 cents under September futures yesterday while average Iowa basis dropped a few cents to 34 under.  
   # Fund traders are estimated to have a net-short north of 180,000 contracts.  The position is not as bearish as it had been recently when in March of this year the net-short was 230,000 contracts.
   # Impeached Brazilian president Rousseff will face her final removal vote today.  Market participants will watch to see if the new administration moves to make any aggressive changes to agriculture trade policy in the months/years ahead.  
   # Egypt has issued a wheat tender, just a few days removed from the announcement that the government will reinstate a zero-tolerance policy on imports that include ergot fungus.  Many sellers will be hesitant to offer wheat to the top-importer in fear that their cargos will be rejected, as some were early this year.   
   # Estimates will start to circulate last this week for the September crop report.  The rough consensus among analysts is that corn yield can come down from the August 175.1 bpa estimate but that USDA soybean yield can rise from here.  
   # International equity markets were mostly flat on Wednesday and the U.S. stock futures were starting out that way too.  The dollar index climbs further after appreciating in six of the last eight days.    

***** Livestock futures look to benefit from follow-through buying at the start. *****

   # Traders are thinking the slide for wholesale beef has created the type of value that will start to spur demand.  Some early-week cash sales traded at levels $4-$5 lower than last week.  Deals near $110 live leave a few dollars of premium over the October futures contract.  
   # Pork production continue to run stubbornly high as slaughters tart this week a touch below last week but still ahead of last year.  December futures have last week’s high at $58.45 to contend with just ahead of the market.