AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, September 02, 2016
***** Corn futures up 4 1/2 to 5 1/4 cents at the break; soybeans up 7 3/4 to 8 1/2; Chicago wheat higher by 3 1/4 to 4 1/2. ***** 

   # Grains show some follow-through strength on the last day of the trade week.  Trading volume is moderate.     
   # A first round of estimates for the September crop report is expected for today.  Informa and FC Stone should put out their predictions.
   # Soyoil leads the complex higher this morning with help itself from higher Asian palm oil markets.  Soyoil futures maintain an abnormally-narrow premium over palm oil and thus U.S. soy futures should benefit from any further palm gains.  
   # USDA reported July soybean crush at 153.4 million bushels, a number which was down on June but well above the year-ago total of 115.7 million.  Crush runs right on pace to meet the USDA’s marketing year target of 1.9 billion bushels.  
   # December wheat still trades below $4 as market participants re-weigh the fundamentals:  U.S. wheat is priced competitively to European supplies, but grain from the Black Sea is cheaper.  The Russian harvest may not live up to early expectations.  Egypt is causing tension in the trade market with a zero-tolerance ergot policy.  Dry weather in India is a threat to production and should boost that country’s imports again.  U.S. farmers plan to plant fewer acres to wheat again next season.
   # August payrolls missed the consensus estimate, coming in at 151,000 versus expectations of +180,000.  The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent when a 0.1 percent drop was expected.     

***** Cattle futures look to close the week with choppy trade action; hogs have some upward momentum to benefit from. ***** 

   # Cash and wholesale weakness weigh on cattle futures.  The market was unable to ever benefit much from buying ahead of the Labor Day holiday.  A favorable weekend weather forecast for most should lead to a big grilling weekend.      
   # Pork export strength continues to ease some of the pressure that stubbornly high production has placed on the market.  Pork cutout values continue to firm inch by inch, but cash still has a weak bias.