AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, September 06, 2016
***** Corn futures down 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 cents; soybeans down 3 to 4 1/4; Chicago wheat off 3 1/2 to 4 1/4. *****

   # Grains start lower after a long weekend featured favorable weather.  The nearness of harvest in the Midwest is a headwind for the market. 
   # A pair of industry estimates were issued on Friday with one looking for the USDA’s corn yield estimate to rise to 175.6 bushels per acre with soybeans up to 48.8 bpa.  The government analysts update the Crop Production and WASDE numbers next Monday.
   # Friday’s look at trader positions had funds net-short corn by 163,000 contracts through last Tuesday.  The large speculators were net-long soybeans by 100,000 contracts and net-short wheat by 122,000.
   # Brazil’s crop agency Conab made another cut to their estimate for winter corn production.  Total output for 2015/16 is now pegged at 67 million tons versus the USDA August estimate of 68.5 mt.  
   # December corn futures trade within Friday’s range so far this morning making $3.29 3/4 a point of minor resistance.  More formidable resistance is in place with the August high of $3.42 1/4.
   # Soybean bulls are working to hold chart support at $9.50 for the November contract with $9.37 the three-month low to watch.  
   # Rain is expected back over the next 48 hours with totals probably heavier in Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin.  Warm temperatures precede the showers.
   # Dollar index futures are a touch lower this morning to reflect strength in the pound.  Outside markets look to have an active couple of weeks ahead as global central banks are expected to make various monetary policy adjustments.    

***** Cattle futures look to start on the defensive but should find technical support; hogs could face pressure from follow-through selling. *****

   # There is little to find in the way of friendly fundamental influences for the cattle market except for ideas that maybe the worst is over.  Labor Day Weekend leaves the summer grilling season behind us, but with it should begin a seasonal downturn for beef production.      
   # Gains for the pork cutout evaporated by the end of last week and place some pressure on the market at the start of this week.  Still, low pork prices are expected to spur better demand as we approach October’s National Pork Month.