AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, September 07, 2016
***** Corn up 4 to 4 3/4 cents; soybeans gain 14 1/4 to 17 1/4; Chicago wheat settles higher by 3 to 4 1/4. *****

   # Soybeans were buoyed by a pair of daily export sales.  220,000 tons were sold to China with another 264,000 booked by an unknown buyer.  Strengthening feed demand has helped to improve crush margins in China and makes the top-importer an active buyer on price dips.  
   # Egypt rejected a cargo of Romanian wheat after it was found to contain ergot fungus.  Egypt’s zero-tolerance policy regarding the fungus will have exporters hesitant to offer wheat to the top-importer in fear that shipments will be turned away. 
   # Traders are reviewing the historical tendencies for USDA’s September yield adjustments while the report approaches.  September corn yields were lower than the final figure in 5 of the last 10 years while soybean yields in September were under the final in 8 of 10.  
   # Funds were net buyers of the grains on the day.  The CFTC’s “managed money” category of traders is estimated net-short corn by around 150,000 contracts, net-short wheat by 120,000, and net-long soybeans by 120,000.  
   # The southern states are on the back end of corn harvest.  The Louisiana harvest is estimated at 83 percent as of Sunday.  Mississippi 58 percent, Alabama 37 percent, Arkansas 59 percent, Georgia 85 percent.
   # A few government crop agencies in the Midwest have started to track harvest progress.  Illinois harvest is estimated at 1 percent versus 2 a year ago.  Missouri is at 8 percent versus 2 last year.  
   # A Stats Canada report on Canadian wheat and canola stocks found both numbers coming in higher than expected.  All-wheat inventories were counted at 5.2 million tons, well above the average trade guess of 4.3 million.  Canola stocks were 2 million tons versus expectations of 1.3 million.  Still, wheat and canola stocks were down 27 and 21 percent on the year, respectively.  
   # August 2 and August 31 daily bottoms for November futures at $9.43 have established a level of solid technical support for the contract.  Today’s move completed a 50 percent retracement of the last-half August slide with $9.88 1/2 remaining as a 62 percent Fibonacci target. 
   # Reaction to the release of the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” was relatively muted.  “Modest” was the word used to describe recent U.S. economic growth while “moderate” improvement is expected through the final months of the year.            

***** Live cattle futures up $1.80 to $2.40 with feeders closing higher by $2.55 to $2.75; hogs gain $0.52 to $1.95. *****

   # The even-$100 mark supported live cattle futures while the board also did some work to converge with the cash market.  Last week’s cash deals were marked in near $107-$108 live.      
   # Hog futures made a technical rebound to close the down-gap opened on Tuesday.  Traders found little direction from cash and wholesale markets that were steady on the day.