AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, September 07, 2016
***** Corn futures up 1 1/2 to 2 cents ahead of the break; soybeans higher by 8; Chicago wheat up 1 3/4 to 2 1/2. *****

   # Corn crop conditions dropped one point to 74 percent Good or Excellent.  Corn matured is called 18 percent versus 17 percent last year and 20 percent for the five-year average.
   # Soybeans are rated 73 percent G/E, unchanged from the previous week and 10 points above last year.  Soybeans dropping leaves make up 12 percent of the crop versus 15 percent LY and 12 percent average.
   # A wet forecast is a worry for farmers with corn ready to harvest.  The five-day forcast has up to 4.5 inches falling over parts of central Illinois with 2-3 inches in store for most of the rest of the Midwest.
   # New estimates for the September 12 Crop Production and WASDE reports will start to circulate today.  A loose trader consensus looks for no change to acres, a small cut to corn yield, small bump to bean yield, higher U.S. corn and soybean exports for 2015/16, and a light trimming on production estimates for various corn and wheat crops outside of the U.S.
   # Soyoil is the laggard of the soy complex this morning as the product faces pressure from an Asian palm market that ended lower.  Palm oil is expected to correct back to a bigger discount to soyoil as Asian palm inventories rebuild after being wiped out by El-Nino induced drought. 
   # Continued export strength is lending support to soybeans with related optimism stoked as recently as yesterday when the weekly export inspections report featured a hefty total.  China is expected to ramp up buying again as crush margins recover.    
   # Dollar index futures are flat after a having a tumble on Tuesday.  A combination of improved economic data abroad and disappointing numbers at home are starting to weigh on the dollar as traders price in lower chances for a late-2016 U.S. interest rate hike.       

***** Cattle futures should benefit from technical buying at the start; hogs could face pressure from follow-through selling. *****

   # Live cattle futures trade near key support from $100 while cash holds a heavy premium. Beef supplies remain burdensome at a time when demand is making a seasonal dip and production is only just starting to level off.      
   # Wholesale pork prices are improving after a sizable summer tumble spurred demand.  Margins have been restored to a level that is encouraging an active slaughter but demand is absorbing the supply OK.