AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, September 08, 2016
***** Corn gains 5 to 6 cents; soybeans up 1 to 2 1/2; Chicago wheat higher by 3 to 6 1/2. *****

   # December corn futures closed higher for a fifth straight session. November soybeans were turned away from their 20-day moving average.  Trading volume for the grains is much lighter than average this week as market participants play wait-and-see ahead of the September 12 crop report.  
   # Today’s rains fell over a swath of the Midwest that covered most of Missouri through Central Illinois and the northern half of Indiana. Totals of 1 to 4 inches are forecasted for the Corn Belt over the next 36 hours.      
   # Some weather watchers are becoming less convinced that we’ll see La Nina this year.  A blog update today from NOAA had odds for an early-winter development being lowered to about 40 percent.   
   # No daily export sales announcements were made today, but a string of them earlier in the week will be expected to contribute to a large set of numbers when the weekly totals are reported tomorrow morning.  Corn and soybean sales should tally around 35 and 45 million tons, respectively.  
   # After it was reported that Egypt had rejected a Romanian wheat cargo due to the discovery of ergot fungus, the shipper clarified that they had never sent the grain and instead declined to fill the order because of Egypt’s policy change.   
   # A narrow premium for wheat over corn and generally-low corn prices have been a partial result of increased supplies of wheat in the feed channel and its substitution for corn.  Another USDA addition to the U.S. wheat feed usage estimate could come, even after the targets were revised up by 50 percent on the July WASDE report and then another 10 percent on the August.
   # Chinese farmers will harvest less corn this season after planting fewer acres to the grain.  The country was project to have 110.67 million tons of carryover in 2015/16, or about 53 percent of the world total.  The latest auctions out of state-owned inventories have been met with little interest as those stocks are known to be of low quality and are still not competitively priced relative to importable grain.  
   # WTI crude futures rallied by more than $2 per barrel after the weekly energy inventory report featured a shocking 14.5 million barrel draw from U.S. oil stocks.  Analysts had expected to see a small build.   

***** Live cattle futures settle lower by $1.02 to $1.60; feeders off $1.47 to $2.25; hogs fractionally changed on the day. ***** 

   # Cattle futures turned back lower behind weak wholesale prices and pessimism regarding cash market potential.  The midday cutout report had choice beef down $0.84 with select off $0.49.  Those values are down about 20 percent on the year.  Cash bids are starting off near $103-$104 with no takers there yet.  
   # Wholesale pork prices continued higher and helped sustain the new idea that better demand is helping the market turn a corner.  Early gains for December hog futures found pushback from technical selling near the contract’s 20- and 50-day moving averages.