AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, September 13, 2016
***** Corn down a dime while November soybeans drop 20 cents; Chicago wheat off 8 1/4. *****

   # Not a good day for the grains as report day bearishness spilled over to combine with a selloff for stocks and bonds.
   # Good feelings about trade demand still have the potential to provide a backstop for corn and soybean futures.  Cumulative export commitments are up 40 percent on the year for soybeans and nearly double what they were for corn this time last year.    
   # Weather forecasts lean a little friendlier for farmers ready to get a start on harvest.  The latest run of the 6-10 day map turned drier/warmer for the Corn Belt.  Small chances remain for rain on nearly every day through the next 10.  
   # Funds were seen exiting bullish soybean bets but were expected to remain net-long by the end of the session by about 75,000 contracts.  The net corn short is once again approaching 200,000 contracts while the bearish wheat position is near 150,000. 
   # The industry was talking about corn ear rot being observed with high incidence at the start of harvest.  Most are of the opinion that the issue will iron itself out as quickly as farmers move through their early-planted corn.  
   # Wheat is playing tag along while the market digests the more-notable changes made to the corn and soybean balance sheets on Monday.  Traders are also waiting to see how the market sorts out the back-and-forth caused by Egypt’s ergot policy spat. 
   # Oil was lower as a partial result of comments by the International Energy Agency that painted a dim view of global demand prospects.  Bulls still hold out hope that the market will rally on an output-freeze decision that would potentially come out of an OPEC/Russia meeting to be held at the end of the month.     

***** Live cattle futures down $0.82 to $1.02; feeders down $1.15 to $1.75; hogs drop $2.47 to $3. ***** 

   # Negative outside markets were more than enough to trigger selling in an already-bearish-trending livestock market.  Cattle futures maintain some degree of upside potential from expectations for beef production to come down in the fourth and first quarters.  Hogs find their upside potential from the better demand prospects that low pork prices have triggered.