AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, September 14, 2016
***** Corn futures end higher by 1 to 3 cents; soybeans down a penny; Chicago wheat up 2 to 3. *****

   # Grain futures continue to trade light volume as market participants wait to see further progress for the Midwest harvest.  Heightened volatility in outside markets remains a headwind for the grains.   
   # Monthly data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will be reported tomorrow.  August soybean crush is expected near 138.5 million bushels.  
   # Weekly ethanol production was up 0.6 percent on the week with stocks that fell 2.2 percent.  Corn grind was 102.7 million bushels compared to 101.2 million needed to meet the USDA’s target of 5.275 billion bushels for the new marketing year.  
   # Funds were seen liquidating soybean longs for a third straight session.  The managed money net-long is estimated near 75,000 contracts while the net corn short hovers near 185,000.  The recent extreme for the net corn short was 230,00 contracts held at the end of February when December corn futures traded near $3.80. 
   # France’s soft wheat crop received another downgrade with that country’s crop agency cut its output estimate by 30 percent while forecasting a 43 percent drop for exports.  
   # Analysts are suggesting that the September acres numbers from the Farm Service Agency should cause the USDA NASS estimates to rise, potentially by 200-500,000 for corn and 100-200,000 for soybeans.   
   # Traders look for another good week’s worth of export sales to support the strong demand storyline that has provided a small degree of optimism regarding grain price potential.  Thursday’s report is expected to show new corn bookings near 30 million bushels, soybeans 55 mbu, wheat 18 mbu.

***** Live cattle futures gain $0.47 to $1.12; feeders down $0.42 to $0.70; hogs tumble $1.45 to $1.82. *****

   # Live cattle were choppy with afternoon strength somewhat limited by expectations for bids in the cash market to develop near the $105 that October futures are trading at.      
   # Hog futures could not benefit from a technical rebound and instead continue to trade lower on weak near-term supply fundamentals.  Lower pork prices had been expected to spur better buyer interest, but high slaughters and heavy weights keep production running at a pace that outstrips consumption.