AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, September 21, 2016
***** Corn down fractionally; soybeans off 11 3/4 to 14 1/4 cents; Chicago wheat up 1 3/4 to 2 3/4 cents. *****
   # A tight-ranged trade for December corn futures with support from the 50-day moving average maintained.  November soybeans dropped back below their 50-day but found buyers at the 200-day.  It was, again, an extremely low-volume trading session for the grains.   
   # A good round of export deals reported on the daily flash sales system: 145,000 tons of hard red wheat headed to Morocco, 126,000 tons of soybeans sold to an unknown destination, 118,000 tons of soybeans to Taiwan, 120,000 tons of soybeans to China, and 116,000 tons of sorghum to unknown.
   # Traders expect weekly export sales to total 800,000 tons corn, 1.1 million tons soybeans, and 400,000 tons wheat.  The USDA sales report will be issued at 7:30am Thursday.  
   # Egypt will scrap its zero-tolerance policy on ergot fungus found in wheat imports.  The top-buyer will look to ramp up purchases in the few weeks ahead after having purchased very little wheat in the past few months.
   # Midwest soybean yields are coming in mostly better than expected, even versus expectations that were very high coming in.  Corn yields are variable with a rough trend of disappointment starting to shape up. 
   # 6-10 and 8-14 day weather maps still lean wet, particularly for the Western Corn Belt.  The forecast holds warm for the Midwest through the rest of month.
   # Ethanol production was down on the week to put corn grind lower also at 100.3 million bushels.  Corn used for ethanol needs to average 101.2 million per week to meet the USDA’s current marketing year target of 5.275 billion bushels.
   # No U.S. Fed funds rate change, as expected.  Three of 10 voting members argued to hike interest rates now and most anticipate making a policy change by the year’s end.  The treasury curve flattened while dollar index futures traded back and forth but mostly lower on the news.     

***** Live cattle futures up $0.87 to $1.30; feeders gain $0.82 to $1.10; feeders down $0.27 to $1.12. ***** 

   # News of China’s willingness to begin importing U.S. beef helped to support cattle futures.  Higher beef prices were also a friendly influence.  Buyer enthusiasm may become dampened until the trade sees how the cash market might develop.     
   # A new contract low for October hog futures as traders price in expectations for further pork production gains this fall.  Demand is strong enough to keep the wholesale market supported while cash prices stay weak, keeping packers happy.