AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, September 21, 2016
***** Corn futures down 2 cents ahead of the break; soybeans off 3 to 4; Chicago wheat down 2. *****

   # Grain futures back off by a few cents overnight, consolidating near recent highs.  News is limited as trader wait for possible export sales announcements.
   # Monday featured a flash corn sale to Mexico, Tuesday a bean sale to China.  Besides its weekly report, USDA reports all single grain export deals of more than 100,000 tons each morning at 8:00am central.
   # Open interest was up for corn and soybean futures on Tuesday while staying flat for Chicago wheat.  Fund traders have been buyers of the grains so far this week, but only lightly so.  Trading volume remains very low as it usually does this time of year when market participants are waiting on harvest to ramp up in the Midwest. 
   # Soybeans do not have the same support from soyoil that they enjoyed at the start of the week.  Soyoil itself does not have any spillover support from the Asian palm oil market, which turned lower today because of disappointing export data.
   # Most of Brazil is forecasted to stay dry over the next several days.  Clear skies will help make quick work of corn and soybean plantings, but lingering drought is a worry for production potential at the start of the new season.  
   # USDA reports Central Illinois average corn basis at 25 cents under December futures, soybean basis at 10 under the November.  The Interior Iowa report has the Iowa state averages for corn and soybeans at 43 and 54 under, respectively.  
   # Fed Decision Day is today with the central bank’s decision on interest rates due out at 1:00pm central.  Observers do not look for a rate hike this time around but currently give 50-50 odds to a December increase.    

***** December live cattle start with support from their 20-day moving average as December hogs still work to carve out a bottom. *****

   # Traders will talk today about the Chinese premier commenting that his government was willing to begin importing U.S. beef again. Cattle futures still maintain some technical momentum after rallying about 5 percent from their September lows, but buyers are not much more enthusiastic over the supply and demand fundamentals.    
   # Pork demand is keeping wholesale values supported while slaughters still run at a pace that keeps cash prices on the defensive.  The industry will count on October’s National Pork Month to help with the easing of an oversupplied domestic market.