AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, September 22, 2016
***** Corn down 3 cents; soybeans up 1; Chicago wheat down 3/4 to 2 1/4. *****
   # The weekly export sales tally was a touch weak for soybeans, but related negativity was eased by another round of daily bookings.  The flash sale system reported included 120,000 tons headed to China and 151,000 tons purchased by an unknown buyer.
   # Export commitments run well above their year-ago levels with cumulative bean sales up 35 percent and corn up nearly 85 percent.  Current USDA export targets forecast a 2.3 percent increase for year-on-year soybean sales and a 13.6 percent gain for corn.   
   # Egypt’s state grain buying authority issued a tender for wheat to find it matched with four offers.  Sellers will be less hesitant to ship wheat to Egypt after the country lifted its zero-tolerance policy on ergot contamination.
   # Soyoil futures held their rally while beans fell flat.  The edible oil market is featuring strength as its most popular product, palm oil, is in short supply in the top-producing countries of Malaysia and Indonesia while remaining in high demand from the top buyers in China and India.
   # The approaching September 30 Grain Stocks report will set 2015/16 corn and soybean carryout numbers using responses from USDA’s Agricultural Survey.  The survey is conducted through the first two weeks of September and covers 75,000 farms and all commercial grain storage facilities.  
   # U.S. acreage intentions for 2017 were being discussed this week after the analysts at Informa projected soybean area at 88.6 million acres, that coming at the expense of planting reductions predicted for corn and wheat.  A recent Farm Futures survey forecasted a less severe acreage switch, about 750,000 more soybean acres and 1 million less corn.
   # Oil prices are rallying on a weaker dollar and on speculation that the end-of-month OPEC meeting will produce an output freeze.  WTI crude futures traded a $40 - $50 range for the entire summer; the direction of prices this fall will likely have a strong bearing on the broad commodity space, grains included.   

***** Live cattle futures down $1.15 to $1.47; feeders steady to $0.70 lower; Oct hogs down $0.22 with Dec up $0.35. ***** 

   # Traders took some profit on recent cattle gains but technical buyers showed up to support December futures at their 20-day moving average.  Beef cutout values were moderately higher at midday while a cash market had yet to develop.         
   # More spread action for hog futures as October dropped against the rest of the curve.  More of the same for cash prices, which continued lower.  The carcass cutout averaged dropped $1.27 to $78.25.