AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, September 23, 2016
***** Corn futures down 2 ahead of the break; soybeans off 10, Chicago wheat fractionally higher. *****

   # A drier turn for the 6-10 day weather outlook helps to weigh on prices this morning.  Overnight losses for the grains pull futures into the red for the week.
   # Weather is not entirely price negative, as farmers in the Midwest will face harvest delays when rains move into the region late this weekend.  Weekend rainfall would add to some heavy totals collected in the northwest Corn Belt this week (reports of up to 14 inches in Minnesota).
   # No help from soyoil this morning as the bean product slipped along with the Asian palm oil market.  December bean oil futures stand 3.1 percent higher on the month while November soybeans are up 2.8 percent.  December soymeal is back to where it started the month.  
   # Chinese trade officials have decided to levy additional duties on U.S. dried distillers grains in an effort to curb what they see as dumping.  The move comes after the U.S. petitioned the World Trade Organization to investigate Chinese agricultural subsidies.  
   # Egypt purchased four cargoes of Russian wheat in its latest tender post the ergot policy fiasco.  Russia has plenty of wheat to ship and will now allow exporters to trade with zero duty tax.  
   # More dry, warm weather forecasted for Brazil through the weekend.  Most of the country is running well short of normal rainfall as farmers there work to get corn and soybean fields planted. 
   # A setback for December corn futures puts the recent low of $3.26 1/2 in sight with a test of the contract’s 20-day moving average coming first.  The August $3.44 1/4 serves resistance.  November soybeans would find potential support from their 3-month low of $9.37.         
   # Very quiet outside markets overnight.  Investors in the stock market have treated this week’s no-rate-hike decision from the Fed as a positive development.  The dollar could be expected to work lower if it were not for the rest of developed economies also maintaining easy money monetary policies.   

***** Cattle futures to trade in anticipation of the monthly on-feed report; hog traders may look to take profit on shorts into the weekend. ***** 

   # The lifting of China’s 13-year ban on U.S. beef imports was a friendly development for the cattle market this week.  This afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report will guide the futures trade into next week.  Analysts expect that placements could come in 12 percent higher than the year-ago total.    
   # Spreading activity has defined the hog futures trade over the past several sessions as the nearby contract makes new lows.  Buyers need to see some stabilization in the cash market before the board can make a correction.