AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Monday, September 26, 2016
***** Corn ended mostly 7 lower; soybeans 9-10 lower; Chicago wheat 8-9 lower. *****

   Mostly expected harvest activity kept the corn/soy on the defensive, in turn, helping guide wheat prices lower too.  Weekend showers stalled harvest in some places, but Midwestern weather is expected to be mostly good in the week ahead.  
   # The new 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show more moisture in the western/northwestern parts of the Corn Belt.  Warmer temps are expected to be pushed to the eastern part of the US, although the eastern Corn Belt could remain a little warm.  
   Weather forecasts for S. America, still show moisture chances for the southern states, and parts of Argentina.  But, the outlooks still don’t show a sign of the rainy season starting in the north, a situation that could slow early planting of soybeans, which could eventually push back 2nd crop corn planting again.  But it is still early.  There is talk of planting more corn in Argentina in their late planting window if dryness lingers in some spots.
   Export inspections were good for corn and wheat, but disappointing for soybeans.  52.6 mln. bu. of corn were inspected, and 32.1 mln. of wheat.  The 14.1 mln. bu. of soybeans were under expectations, but didn’t seem to rattle the trade much.  There was some talk about a really big number given the ship lineup, but maybe the loadings of corn kept soy ships from being filled.  But with the sales, the shipments will come, and another 240,000 tons were reported today.
   Harvest activity was a little short of expectations.  15% of the corn is harvested; the trade was looking for 17%.  10% of the soybeans were harvested; the trade was looking for 11%.  Obviously, the weather in the west in particular kept the pace under expectations.  30% of the winter wheat has now been planted. 
   Black Sea area soils are a little dry, slowing the pace of planting of the winter crops.  EU regions remain dry, continuing to undermine prospects for their corn crop, France’s in particular. 
   # India continues to reduce foodstuff import tariffs to help rein in inflation.  AT the end of last week, they lowered the wheat tariff.  Over the weekend they lowered tariffs on various vegoils.  
   The Dollar and U.S. equity markets traded lower ahead of tonight’s first Presidential debate.  The Dollar is also feeling some pressure from last week’s lack of change in Fed policy.  Equities were hit by a weak banking sector, a sector tied to Fed policy.

***** Live cattle ended $0.45 to $0.80 lower, feeders $1.32-$1.90 lower, with lean hogs $0.95 to $0.30 lower. ***** 

   Wholesale beef ended slightly higher, with choice at $187.04.  The cash cattle trade was quiet, but the showlists are up a little this week, which could translate into a slightly softer tone.  Friday’s COF report was slightly negative, which may have tipped the futures balance slightly lower.           
   Wholesale pork rebounded Monday, with the #2 cutout ending at $78.61.  But cash hog prices ended slightly lower behind the persistence of ample hog supplies.  Marketings could be good this week, with producers cleaning up marketings ahead of Friday’s quarterly hog report.