AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, September 27, 2016
***** Corn futures up 2 3/4 to 3 cents; soybeans higher by 7 1/4 to 8; Chicago wheat 5 to 8. ***** 
   # Soybean futures notched in new three-month lows before rebounding back into positive territory.  The November contract settled above $9.50 but below Monday’s high and under its 20-day moving average.  Soybean volume was the highest of the month. 
   # A mostly-dry forecast for the Midwest this week is expected to allow harvest to pick up after Monday’s crop report showed it pacing behind the year-ago and five-year average levels for corn and soybeans.   
   # A flash sale was announced for 120,000 tons of soybeans headed for export to China, this coming after Monday’s very weak inspections tally.  
   # Friday’s Grain Stocks report will be accompanied by the Small Grains Summary and its 2016 wheat production estimates.  The average trade guess for U.S. all wheat production is 2.326 billion bushels with a range of 2.299 – 2.35.
   # Yield results from the field have traders starting to formulate expectations for the October Crop Production report.  Phenomenal soybean yield reports have some in the industry discussing 52-53 bushel per acre potential versus the USDA September estimate of 50.6.
   # Wheat was the leader of the day with futures finding some support from a marginally-improving demand outlook.  Egypt is back to buying after the ergot fiasco and talk of demand from India and Morocco helps too.  Additionally, there was some talk of wet weather cutting into record production potential in Australia.  
   # Southern Brazil collected some light rains over the weekend, but the forecast for most of the country is dry through the week.  This week’s forecast turned slightly wetter for Argentina.      
   # Stock and bond traders were pricing in adjusted odds for the presidential race after last night’s debate.  Market volatility related to the election will be likely to have a bearing on the Fed’s December interest rate decision.    

***** Live cattle futures limit lower; November feeders down the $4.50 limit; hog futures drop $1.35 to $2.15. *****

   # Technical sellers were out early and pushed cattle futures down to limit lower.  Higher beef prices at midday failed to spark any buyer enthusiasm.  Higher slaughters at the start of the week and larger showlist estimates add to the supply-side negativity. 
   # Monday’s cutout price jump failed to keep cash prices from falling further; hog futures followed. Traders are beginning to price in their expectations for Friday’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.  The average of analysts’ estimates calls for all-hogs-and-pigs to come in at 101.1 percent of a year ago with the breeding herd up to 100.6 percent and kept for marketing at 101.1 percent.