AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, September 27, 2016
***** Corn futures fractionally higher ahead of the break; soybeans up 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 cents; Chicago wheat higher by 1 to 2. ***** 

   # Corn harvest was called 15 percent complete as of Sunday, just behind the 17 percent expected and also behind 16 percent from last year and 19 percent the five-year average.  Still no harvest-time drop for corn condition ratings, which stay at 74 percent Good or Excellent.
   # The U.S. soybean crop was 10 percent harvested versus 17 percent a year ago and 13 percent for the five-year average.  Soybeans left to cut were rated 73 percent G/E, unchanged from last week.  
   # December corn futures are down for a test of technical support from the September 14 low of $3.26 1/2.  The contract slipped under its 10-, 20-, and 50-day moving average all on yesterday’s tumble but maintains some room above the lifetime low of $3.14 3/4.
   # November soybeans are making a second test of the September 1 low of $9.37.  Momentum is negative by a 12-day measure with the MACD in the process of making a bearish signal line crossover.  
   # Soyoil futures are starting lower despite slight strength being enjoyed by beans and meal.  The recent Asian palm oil rally has lost some steam after the latest export data disappointed.  
   # The forecast calls for low rainfall chances for the Eastern Corn Belt through the next few days but better odds call for a dry trend to dominate across the Midwest for the next 5 days.  NOAA’s two-week maps lean wetter west and drier east, warm throughout the Midwest. 
   # CFTC’s latest look at trader positions had money managers net-short corn by 161,592 contracts.  That report is current through last Tuesday and the large speculators are now estimated to be net-short by about 175,000 contracts.  
   # Estimates for Friday’s Grain Stocks report are circulating.  The average of analysts’ predictions for final 215/16 corn inventories totals 1.754 billion bushels versus USDA’s September WASDE estimate of 1.731 billion.  The trade guess for soybeans is 200 million bushels versus USDA 191. 
   # Crude oil futures are giving back most of Monday’s gains as bulls turn pessimistic over this week’s OPEC meeting.  Officials from Iran have indicated that they won’t sign on to a production freeze agreement.      

***** Cattle futures price in early-week expectations for the cash trade; hogs look to benefit from rebounding cash and wholesale prices.  *****

   # Cattle futures reversed out of a bearish reaction to the Cattle on Feed report to finish flat on Monday.  Slaughter start the week out on the high side of expectations and showlists are estimated a little higher, but traders are waiting early this week to see where cash bids develop.        
   # Big gains for wholesale pork provide some support to hog futures at the start of the week.  The wholesale market may have potential to stabilize and eventually improve as demand picks up into National Pork Month, but higher futures would require cash prices to start moving in the same direction as pork.