AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, September 29, 2016
***** Corn futures flat; soybeans up 4 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat down 3 1/2 to 4 1/4. ***** 

   # Traders used the Thursday session to accomplish some last minute positioning ahead of the crop report and before the week’s/month’s end.  Volume was light and, but for some export data, news was scarce.
   # Quarterly Grain Stocks report is issued at 11:00am central tomorrow.  Average estimates from analysts polled by Reuters: corn stocks 1.754 billion bushels; soybeans 201 million bushels; wheat 2.397 billion bushels.  
   # Weekly export sales were on the light side for corn at 22.6 million bushels, soybeans strong at 62.2 million, and wheat also strong at 21 million.  
   # As expected, a flash bean sale was announced, 120,000 tons headed to China.  The number was lighter than the anticipated 5 or 6 cargos that China was rumored to have booked a few days ago.  China has Friday yet to show up on the daily sales ticker before traders there head off for vacation.
   # Chart traders were looking at an outside reversal for December corn futures, but the contract did manage a close above yesterday’s low.  December corn trades below an intersecting set of 10-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages.  Tomorrow’s report should feature enough of a move to set trend for futures for the next few weeks.      
   # The International Grains Council (IGC) issued its latest look at world grain production potential.  Total grains output was unchanged from the group’s previous estimate, predicted to rise about 3 percent on the year.  IGC upped its guess for world soybean production, which is expected to gain 4 percent over the 15/16 crop year total. 
   # The Dow and S&P 500 sunk lower under the weight of weak bank stocks.  The banking sector was hit but further losses from Deutsche Bank.  That German bank is battling shaky investor confidence that has resulted from capital concerns related to an upcoming settlement with the Department of Justice over alleged financial crisis misdoings.  

***** Live cattle futures down $0.50 to $1.57; feeders off $0.52 to $0.92; hogs up $0.27 to $0.40. ***** 

   # Cattle futures bounced out of Wednesday’s limit-lower close, helped by technical buying and eventually strength for boxed beef.  Cash deals are starting out near $103-$104 live.     
   # Thursday featured light short-covering by traders taking profit ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report.  Unless the report has a sizable size in store for market participants, bearish will remain the trend as hog slaughters continue to run at surprisingly high levels and while weights rise in seasonal fashion.