AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, September 30, 2016
***** Corn futures up 7 1/2 cents; soybeans settle higher by 2 1/4 to 3 3/4; Chicago wheat up 1 1/4 to 3. *****

   # Report day leaned friendly for corn and soybeans, if only because it wasn’t overly bearish.  Grain bears felt comfortable covering some shorts and booking profits ahead of the month’s end.
   # Corn stocks as of September 1 were tallied at 1.74 billion bushels, just slightly below the average trade guess.  On-farm stocks were up 6 percent from a year ago while off-farm fell 2 percent.
   # Soybean stocks were counted at 197 million bushels versus an average trade guess of 201 million.  On-farm down 16 percent, off-farm up 10 percent from last September.  
   # Relative to corn, a better handle on usage for soybeans allows the USDA to make adjustments to the old-crop production estimate on this report.  The 2015 soybean crop was revised down by 2.82 million bushels based on an 82,000 acre reduction to harvest area.  Yield was left unchanged at 48 bushels per acre.  
   # The trade made a more sizable miss on wheat stocks.  All wheat leftover after the first quarter of the grain’s marketing year totaled 2.53 billion bushels versus an average trade prediction of 2.4 billion.  Stocks were up 21 percent from the year prior.
   # Market reaction was initially positive for corn futures, negative soybeans, negative wheat.  Corn climbed steadily and held gains into the closing bell.  Soybeans rebounded quickly after the quick 5-cent drop and traded back and forth between up 2 and up 5 for the rest of the session.  Price action was key for wheat, with futures in Chicago dropping to $3.90 for December delivery before following corn to the positive side of unchanged.  
   # Next week brings focus back to harvest with traders looking to use yield reports from the field to formulate expectations for the October 12 Crop Production report.  
   # Talk of troubled banks subsided somewhat to allow stocks to rally. Energy shares held strong behind the $3.50 rally for WTI crude this week.  Next week brings with it the monthly jobs report that traders will use to help them get a read on interest rate change odds.    

***** Live cattle futures down the $3 limit with feeders nearly locked by the $4.50 limit; hogs down $3 ahead of a bearish report. *****

   # Sellers pushed cattle futures to new lows in a limit-down move.  Wholesale prices dipped lower and traders were not impressed with the early-week cash deals.       
   # Not a market-friendly Hogs and Pigs report.  All headcount numbers matched or exceeded trade estimates.  All Hogs and Pigs were 102 percent of the year-ago total versus an average guess of 101 percent.  Big numbers were tallied for the big weight classes: 120-179 pounds and 180+ pounds both at 104 percent.