AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, September 30, 2016
***** Corn futures down 3 cents; soybeans down 1 to 2; Chicago wheat off 1 to 2. *****

   # Corn futures trade within a two-cent range overnight with soybeans flat after moving up to two cents higher and six cents lower.  Traders look to be mostly content with their positions ahead of the 11:00am crop report.
   # Hedge funds head into the report still holding a hefty net corn short, something in the order of 175,000 contracts.  That spec group is net-long soybeans by an estimated 70,000 contracts.  
   # Estimates for Quarterly Grain Stocks: average corn 1.754 billion bushels with range 1.665-1.862; average beans 201 million bushels with range 180-256; wheat 2.397 bbu and 2.115-2.558.  
   # Analysts have had some trouble pinning down the USDA’s quarterly grain numbers, a look at recent reports by Reuters shows.  Over the past 10 report years, the consensus trade estimate missed by an average of 9 percent for corn stocks and 14 percent for soybeans. 
   # Today’s crop report should lead us into a more active October for grain futures.  September has featured very low trading volume – average daily volume of 208,000 contracts of corn through the month versus an average for the year of 378,000.  Soybean volume has averaged 156,000 contracts per day in September versus 259,000 per day for the rest of the year. 
   # Chicago soyoil futures were fractionally higher despite some slight overnight weakness for beans/meal and also despite weak export data putting Asian palm oil prices on the defensive.  Soyoil futures are up about 2 percent on the month while November soybeans are close to unchanged.    
   # Meteorologists are tracking Hurricane Matthew, currently moving west out of the southern Caribbean Sea.  The system is not expected to be a big threat to Florida at this time.  
   # Traders are keeping an eye on European banks with concern of potential trouble for the economy if the sector suffers from further deterioration of investor confidence.  

***** Live cattle futures to be guided by chart traders at the end of the week while hogs stick to the fundamentals in anticipation of the afternoon headcount report. *****

   # October live cattle futures are down testing recent lows near $100.  A technical trade could dominate through today’s session since the cash market had already developed earlier in the week.  
   # It is report day for hogs, too.  The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be issued at 2:00pm central.  Estimates have most of the inventory numbers running slightly higher than they did a year ago.