AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, October 03, 2016
***** Corn futures up 9 1/4 cents; soybeans higher by 17 3/4 to 19; Chicago wheat down 6 1/4 to 7 1/2. *****

   # Corn futures will now be set up to benefit from technical momentum created from the Friday/Monday rally.  December futures reached above August and September highs on the move.  $3.50 could provide psychological resistance.  The chart is otherwise pretty well wide open before the July $3.80 high.  
   # November soybean futures are up against resistance from an intersecting pair of 50- and 200-day moving averages.  The contract is still well removed from its September high of $9.94.  A bullish signal line crossover was made on the daily MACD to help with momentum.  
   # Wheat could not keep up with corn and soybeans.  It seemed that traders were ready to more fully digest a bearish stocks number from Friday’s report. Some analysts would suggest that the outlook for wheat feed use has been too optimistic.  A weak export inspections tally this morning was also a negative regarding demand.  
   # Crop Progress numbers are due out this afternoon.  The trade expects both corn and soybean harvests to have approached 25 percent.  
   # The soybean export inspections tally bounced back after a poor showing last week, 1.10 million tons versus 386,000 last week.  Corn shipments were also up on the week with a robust 1.47 million bushels counted.  Wheat inspections were a touch disappointing at 642,000 versus 881,000 last week.   
   # Weather has turned somewhat price friendly after some farmers were kept out of the field this weekend.  After the Eastern Corn Belt suffered through several days of wet weather, farmers in the West are expecting rain over the next five days.    
   # Southern Ontario went from dry to wet in a hurry recently.  Parts of Europe are running short of normal moisture, particular in France and Germany.  Wheat in Ukraine could use a drink.  Rain and frost potential are a threat to Australia’s large wheat crop.  Farmers in Brazil were able to make a start on soybean plantings after some recent spotty rains, but much of the major growing regions there remain dry.   
   # Equity markets remain on edge as troubles with Deutsche Bank weigh on the financials sector.  The dollar is showing strength on some flight-to-quality trading. 

***** Live cattle futures steady to down $0.22; feeders down $0.37 to $1.02; hogs flat to up $2.72 for April futures. ***** 

   # October live cattle futures rebounded after reaching down into fresh lows.  Futures are short-term oversold but are also vulnerable to fresh selling after the nearby contract surrendered technical support form $100.       
   # The spread trade was active for hog futures as market participants readjusted their positions to reflect new outlooks formed after Friday’s Hogs and Pigs report.  The deferred contracts finished with gains as traders bet on the worst of fundamental negativity being already mostly priced into the board.