AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, October 03, 2016
***** Corn futures fractionally changed ahead of the break; soybeans a penny higher; Chicago wheat off 2 3/4 cents.*****

   # Grain futures are flat at the start of the new week.  The session could remain choppy as traders price in recent supply data, harvest results, and harvest weather.   
   # December corn futures trade with technical support from a bunched set of 10-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages.  Three recent highs at $3.42 1/4, $3.43 1/4, and $3.44 1/4 stand to serve resistance.  Soybean futures are consolidating near recent lows.  
   # Traders may take another day to digest Friday’s crop report.  The Grain Stocks report featured inventory tallies for corn and soybeans that were both slightly below average trade guesses.     
   # A couple of wheat tenders will guide that market this week.   Buyers from Jordan, Morocco, and Syria will step into the trade market.  Egypt will be expected to make some purchases in the next few weeks as well.  
   # Only light rains fell across the Corn Belt this weekend, mostly in the East.  Rainfall is expected middle of the week for the Midwest. Weather watchers are still tracking Hurricane Matthew.  
   # Analysts will watch the daily sales system for any announcements that would include corn export deals.  Traders mostly shrugged off a 1.58 million ton sale of corn to Mexico last week, despite it being the fourth largest daily corn sale on record.  Soybean export dealings are expected to be few this week with China on holiday.  
   # Friday’s CFTC report counted money managers net-short corn futures and options by 176,844 contracts.  Funds sold 17,000 new contracts of soybeans last week and covered almost that many long positions to leave them net-long the oilseed by 57,652 contracts. 

***** Live cattle futures vulnerable to another leg lower after breaking technical support; hogs vulnerable to selling at the start after Friday’s headcount report. *****

   # Speculators took advantage of a bearish technical environment and sent cattle futures down to lock limit twice last week.  Fundamentally, slaughters still run high and keep cash and wholesale prices on the defensive.    
   # Some suggest the hog futures curve has already priced in a bearish supply outlook to its fullest extent, but the response to Friday’s Hogs and Pigs report will test that notion.  Inventories of market ready hogs are well above where they were last year.