AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, October 07, 2016
***** Corn futures flat; soybeans up fractionally; Chicago wheat fractionally higher. *****

   # Hurricane Matthew remains a threat to the East Coast as the storm center moves up along Florida to approach the Daytona Beach area.  Current trackings have Matthew traversing the entire South Carolina Coast before looping back out the Southeast.    
   # Much of the Midwest dries out over the next few days and temperatures turn a touch cooler.  Frost and freeze are a concern for the northern states tonight.  
   # Weather around the world:  Dry conditions in France and Germany help harvest along but are cause of worry for winter crops.  Soil moisture levels are optimal in much of Russia and allow a favorable start for winter wheat crops there.  Heavy rains over the past few weeks were not welcomed by wheat farmers in Australia.  Soil moisture levels in most of Argentina are abundant enough at the start of the row crop season; much of Brazil is still very dry.  
   # Yesterday’s low and high become support and resistance at $3.38 1/2 and $3.47 3/4 for December corn futures.  Lows at $9.34, $9.37, and $9.43 lend potential support to November soybeans. 
   # Reuters polled 24 analysts for their October crop report estimates, finding an average corn yield prediction of 173.5 bushels per acre, 51.5 bpa soybeans.  The consensus calls for additions to harvested acres for both corn and soybeans.  
   # Analysts expect that bigger crops will flow through the balance sheet into bigger carryout estimates.  The average guess for U.S. 2016/17 corn carryout is 2.359 billion bushels versus USDA September 2.384 billion, soybeans 413 million bushels versus 365 million.  
   # Fund traders were sellers of corn and wheat, buyers of beans yesterday.  Estimates for the managed money positions are 155,000 net-short corn, 140,000 net-short wheat, and 55,000 net-long beans.  
   # The jobs report was a disappointment with 156,000 nonfarm payrolls added last month compared to expectations of +170,000.  The unemployment rate rose from 4.9 to 5 percent.       

***** Cattle futures hold gains for the first of three weeks; hogs could finish higher after six straight weaker weekly closes.  *****

   # Cattle futures may find trouble sustaining the week’s newfound momentum as an active cash trade is not anticipated.  Cash deals were being made starting Wednesday at levels steady to $1 lower than the previous week.  
   # December hog futures achieved an up-day yesterday to end a four-session losing streak.  Wholesale pork looks to have rebound potential but the cash market is still shaky.