AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, October 17, 2016
***** Corn futures steady; soybeans gain 15 cents; Chicago wheat up 2 3/4 to 3 1/2. *****

   # Funds were net-buyers of the grains on the day with the exception of some very light selling of corn.  The managed money soybean long is back to near 75,000 contracts while the net corn short is being pared down to near 100,000 contracts.  
   # Corn futures posted an inside day on the charts with December trading between Friday’s high and low of $3.58 3/4 and $3.48 3/4.  The contract’s 100-day moving average is currently drifting lower from $3.59 1/2. The daily studies still indicate positive momentum and the 14-day RSI is 62.  
   # November soybeans finished above their 200-day moving average and are now left to work toward resistance from the September 20 high of $9.94.  Volume and open interest are up on the recent move to suggest some conviction on the part of soybean buyers.  
   # The NOPA report featured a better-than-anticipated number with 129.4 million bushels of soybeans crushed in September.  The average trade guess was near 128 million with the September 2015 figure at 126.7 million.
   # Soybean inspections were robust this week at 2.5 million tons versus a strong 1.8 million in the previous week.  Higher soybean inspections were achieved partly at the expense of corn shipments, which totaled 876,000 tons versus 1.2 million last week.  Both corn and soybean shipments run slightly ahead of their average seasonal paces.
   # Growers in Brazil are ahead of normal pace on soybean plantings, the crop estimated to be 18 percent sown versus an average near 10 percent.  Acres planted to the oilseed are expected to grow by about 1 percent on the year to help total output reach more than 100 million tons for the first time ever.        
   # Stocks were broadly, but only moderately, lower as traders digested various bits of economic data and adjusted positions for an active earnings report week.  Bond yields were lower as the odds for a December Fed funds rate hike were tapered back.  

***** Live cattle futures up $1.37 to $1.55; feeders up $1.15 to $1.57; hogs down $0.62 to $1.35. *****

   # Friday’s rebound for cattle futures extended into the new week and was fueled by short-covering.  Midday boxed beef averages were down fractionally today.  No action yet in the cash market with showlists expected run a couple thousand head smaller than last week.  
   # Hog futures were lower behind further weakness in the cash market.  Futures remain vulnerable to further long liquidation before production levels taper off later in the year.