AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, October 17, 2016
***** Corn futures up 1 1/2; soybeans higher by 8 to 10; Chicago wheat up 1 to 3 3/4. *****

   # A rally for the Asian palm oil market sparked overnight buying interest in the U.S. soy complex.  Palm oil prices are expected to remain elevated on robust trade demand.  China is noted to be an active buyer lately.  
   # December Chicago wheat futures are trading up against their upper Bollinger Band this morning and just a few cents short of the 100-day moving average.  Not since the during the June rally has the contract been above the 100-day.  
   # Chicago wheat futures are up nearly a quarter through the first half of the month as prospects for the U.S. export program improve.  U.S. wheat was shown to be very competitively priced in an offer to Egypt last week.  It helps matters that world wheat trade business is generally very active as of late.  
   # Wheat futures are also supported by dry conditions that have developed in the Plains to get in the way of hard red wheat planting and exist as a threat to production this season.  The U.S. drought monitor has pockets of ‘Abnormally Dry’ soils marked out in Kansas, Nebraska, and most of western South Dakota.  
   # Warm, dry, breezy conditions will help move along harvest in the Midwest over the next few days. Chances for showers increase on Wednesday and again into the weekend for most of the Eastern Corn Belt.  
   # This afternoon’s Crop Progress report should show corn harvest nearly half complete while soybeans are likely around 60 percent cut.  
   # This morning’s NOPA report should show September soybean crush around 128 million bushels versus 131.8 in the month prior and 126.7 in the year prior.  
   # U.S. equity markets will take guidance from a slate of earnings reports due out this week.  Many of the bank stocks will report, with the numbers receiving plenty of attention as a result of some growing worry over the health of global financial institutions.  

***** Cattle futures look to spend some time early this week consolidating on new lows; hogs vulnerable to a setback after correction attempt. ***** 

   # Cattle futures have rebound potential after selling pressure dried up on Friday to end a four-day slide.  $100 has turned into technical resistance.  This week’s cash trade will give further guidance on the fundamental side after the wholesale market has seemingly stabilized.  
   # Hog slaughters and weights have tapered off to run about even with last year, so the production fundamentals are turning out just ever so slightly less bearish than they were anticipated to be a few weeks ago.