AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, October 18, 2016
***** Corn futures down a penny ahead of the break; soybeans off 3 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat down 3 to 3 1/2. *****

   # Without help from soyoil, soybean futures turn defensive late in an active overnight trade.  Corn futures are stuck in Friday’s range as buyers show some hesitancy near the December contract’s 100-day moving average.  
   # Harvest progress: U.S. corn 46 percent versus 54 last year, 49 for the average; IL 73 percent, IA 33, IN 52; U.S. soybeans 62 percent versus 73 last year, 63 average; IL 58 percent, IA 62, IN 54. 
   # The U.S. winter wheat crop is pegged at 72 percent planted, right on pace with last year and with the five-year average.  Growers throughout the Plains still have worry about dry soil conditions heading into the new season.
   # The edible oil rally fizzled on Tuesday with the active Malaysian palm futures contract dropping 2 percent on the session.  Chicago soyoil futures still hold strength and stand about 5 percent higher since the start of October.  November soybeans are up 2 percent over the same period.  
   # Showers are likely for the Eastern Corn Belt today with totals of up to 2 inches collected by the end of tomorrow for SE Illinois and central Indiana.  Meteorologists see a trough reaching into the western Midwest during the back half of the 6-10 day outlook, bringing rain and cooler temperatures.   
   # Rainy weather is developing throughout most of Brazil to help some dryness causing worry for growers at the start of the new row crop season.  Early prognostications from Brazilian analysts have the country’s soybean crop reaching 103.5 million metric tons versus a 96.5 mmt crop projected by the USDA for last season.
   # USDA analysts in Argentina are paring further their estimate for that country’s acreage planted to soybeans and calling output potential 55 million tons versus the government’s Washington group that pegged it at 57 million on the October report.  Growers in Argentina are planting less soybeans in response to their government’s refusal to reduce export taxes this year as originally promised.  
   # Stock index futures rebound overnight as energy prices do the same.  U.S. banks are in focus this week with several of their third quarter earnings reports out.  The early theme has been that fixed income trading revenue has been better than anticipated.  Data on inflation are due out this morning.  

***** Cattle futures correcting from technically-oversold territory as the hog rebound fails. ***** 

   # High beef production – and high meat production in general – keep the cattle market defensive as buyers have little incentive to want to be aggressive on booking forward coverage.  Still, a correction for futures is not out of the question after the boards steep summer tumble.  Traders will look for the cash market to start to develop on Wednesday; no clear bid/offer structure yet.    
   # A two-day retreat for hog futures puts the December contract back near the lifetime low of $41.10.  Traders see a cash market that just cannot stabilize because of packers being in no hurry to buy from a bulging pipeline of pork supply.