AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, October 21, 2016
***** Corn futures fractionally higher; soybeans up 1 1/2; Chicago wheat steady. ***** 
   # It was a bearish outside day for December corn futures yesterday after the early morning move above the contract’s 100-day moving average failed.  December futures are trading near support from the 10-day moving average and from $3.50.
   # More rain fell over the Eastern Corn Belt last night, bringing two-day totals to 2-4 inches across southern Illinois and all of Indiana and Ohio.  It is expected to be a dry weekend for most.  Showers have a high chance of popping up in the western Midwest early next week.  
   # The analysts at Informa estimate a corn to soybean acres switch next season, one that amounts to 3.6 million fewer corn acres and 4.8 million more soybean acres.  Others see the change likely being something closer to a one million acre swap from this year’s 94.5 million planted corn acres and 83.7 million soybeans.  
   # Hedge funds pressed pause on their short-covering efforts Thursday, comfortable still holding bearish corn/wheat bets and a bullish bean position.  Funds are estimated net-short corn by 125,000 contracts, net-long by near 80,000 soybeans.  
   # Rainy weather in Brazil helps farmers there feel better about freshly-planted crops.  The country’s soybean crop is estimated at more than half sown.  Worries about dry conditions have been partly to credit for Brazilian farmers being behind pace on new-crop sales.  
   # USDA’s Illinois Cash Grain Prices report listed the central state average basis at 20 cents under December futures, soybeans at 31 under November.  The Interior Iowa report had corn and soybean basis in the area at 45 and 74 under, respectively.  
   # The euro dropped after the wrap-up of this week’s European Central Bank meeting, sending money to the dollar.  The dollar index is at a six-month high and approaching the 100-point mark.  

***** Cattle traders await further guidance from the afternoon Cattle on Feed report; hogs look to end five-session losing streak. ***** 

   # Cattle futures rallied limit up on Thursday as selling pressure dried up and traders decided to book profits.  Some fundamental support is being provided by an improved outlook for beef exports, with low prices making U.S. supplies competitive in the world trade market.
   # Cash hogs remain defensive while slaughters run high.  Aggressive marketings keep weights from accelerating at as rapid a pace that was anticipated just a few weeks ago.