AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Monday, October 24, 2016
***** Corn futures were down 4; soybeans were 9-10 higher; Chicago wheat was 10-12 lower. ***** 

   # Monday’s story was driven by the soybean complex, soyoil in particular.  Talk about tighter Chinese palm oil inventories lifted palm oil in the Asian markets, in turn lifting soyoil with it.  On a world basis, there’s much discussion about the stocks/use structure for vegoils being tighter than this last year despite a large U.S. soybean crop and potential large ones in S. America.
   Export inspections were constructive for soybeans, but a little disappointing for the other 2, wheat in particular.  Soybean inspections topped 100 mln. bu. for the first time in 2 years. Hitting 100.7 last week.  But that came at the expense of corn and wheat, with 21.3 mln. bu. of corn inspected, and only 9.0 mln. wheat.  There should be capacity to ship 20 mln. more than was inspected last week.
   # Good harvest weather was a part of the mix too.  The trade expected soybean harvest to be 77% done; the USDA reported 76%.  Corn harvest was expected to be 60% done, they reported 61%.  Winter wheat planting hit 79% complete, a little short of expectations.  But, the first condition rating, 59%, was as expected.  And, it’s higher than it was a year ago, 47%. 
   # Weather is a minor part of the mix at this time, with scattered dry pockets across the northern growing areas of Brazil.  Moisture is good across the southern areas of Brazil and in Argentina, with some areas having too much water.  Planting has gotten bogged down in Argentina, with some producers looking to plant more of their corn in the late planting window. 
   # U.S. weather looks generally good for harvest and wheat planting, although activity will be temporarily stalled by a midweek weather system.  The longer range outlooks are still calling for warmer than normal conditions with mostly dry weather, although the western Corn Belt and Plains could be a little wetter. 
   Outside markets didn’t seem to have much impact today.  The Dollar and equity market were a little stronger.  One Fed Reserve governor indicated they could raise rates 3 times by the end of 2017.  Talk about Iran’s unwillingness to cut output is undermining an agreement to curb OPEC output. 

***** Live cattle were $2.37 to $1.35 higher; feeders were $2.82 to $1.62 higher; hogs were $1.35 to $0.27 higher. *****​

   Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was the key element lifting futures to start the week.  Placements were well under expectations, enough to help blunt any interest in buying corn.  Wholesale prices firmed, with choice ending at $180.98. Feedlot showlists are a little tighter in the north and a little larger in the south.
   Hogs futures mostly followed the cattle futures higher.  Cash prices did hold firm, but could dip with the weather midweek.  Wholesale pork prices firmed a little with the #2 cutout ending at $72.96. Hog supply continues to be the big drag in this market.