AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, October 25, 2016
***** Corn futures were 1 higher; soybeans mostly fractionally change; Chicago wheat was 1-2 higher. *****

   Tuesday was a relatively quiet trade across the grain sector.  There really wasn’t any news that had potential to push prices far either way, and even the “outside markets” lacked direction, eliminating their influence on the grains. 
   The weekly crop ratings were about as expected last night, offering little incentive for the trade to buy or sell grains.  The 61% corn harvest and 76% soy harvest numbers were virtually at expectation.  Wheat planting, 79%, was a little behind ideas, with the initial crop rating good at 59%, but neither had much influence after the recent break.
   Egypt did come in with a large purchase on their overnight tender, 420,000 tons of wheat.  That’s among the largest we can remember, suggesting they consider the price attractive.  They may be somewhat pro-active buying wheat considering problems they are having with sugar.  They don’t want the populace to get upset, setting off another “Arab Spring.” All of the purchase came from Russia and Romania, but they enjoy a logistics advantage.  We didn’t see any U.S. offers this time.
   S. America will remain a part of the mix.  FC Stone estimated nearly 30% of the soybeans had been planted.  Mato Grosso is ahead of that, and may be ahead of normal, setting the stage for the second crop corn to get planted ahead of schedule this spring.  It’s wet across southern Brazil and especially Argentina.  Wheat quality may be negatively impacted, along with more of Argentina’s corn getting planted in their late window.  
   One S. American analyst is suggesting Argentine farmers may be slow to market the soybeans they will harvest next spring with export taxes to be reduced 0.5% each month starting in Jan. 2018. 
   Palm oil futures were softer in Malaysia last night, setting the stage for soyoil futures to weaken slightly.  At the moment they are the product to keep an eye on.  
   Outside markets were limited in scope Tuesday.  Strong home prices were seen as a bit of a positive, but the trade is more interested in the evolving Fed policy, especially after comments that rates could be raised 3 times by the end of 2017. Economic reports continue to suggest the economy is gaining enough traction to pave the way for the Fed to raise rates.

***** Live cattle were $0.07 to $0.30 lower; feeders were $0.37 lower to $0.12 higher; hogs were $1.42 to $0.70 higher. ***** 

   Cattle futures slipped on profit taking in the wake of a good rally over the last week.  Wholesale prices firmed again on talk about meat demand, with choice ending at $182.07. Cash trade is at a standstill, but could edge back to the $100 by week’s end if futures hold up well.
   Hogs futures were buoyed by talk of stronger demand across the meat sector with the lower prices and persistent robust economic figures.  Wholesale pork was higher again with the #2 cutout at $73.46.  Futures discount to cash is a short term plus as well, although rising hog supplies may eventually press cash prices lower.