AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, October 31, 2016
***** Corn futures down fractionally; soybeans steady; Chicago wheat gains 3 3/4 to 7 3/4. ***** 
   # Today was First Notice Day for November soybean futures.  No delivery notices were issued.  The development did not influence overall direction of the market but it did help to narrow the Nov/Jan futures spread by 1 1/4 cent.  
   # Another strong export inspections report this week: 792,000 tons of corn versus 544,000 last week; 2.9 million tons of soybeans this week versus 2.8 in the prior; 325,000 wheat versus 265,000.
   # Cumulative corn exports are running more than 30 percent larger than last year’s total, well on track to meet a USDA target that is 17 percent bigger than last year’s.  Soybean shipments are 11 percent larger year-to-date versus USDA’s projection of a 4.5 percent increase for the marketing year.   
   # It is expected to be a dry five days for the U.S. Plains, but the higher rainfall chances appear on the 6-10 day maps.  Temperatures should continue to run warmer than average through the first half of November. 
   # The edible oil rally has taken pause over the previous couple of trading sessions, leaving U.S. soyoil futures down in 4 of the last 5 sessions.  
   # Oil prices tumbled at the start of the week as OPEC members failed to reach a clear agreement on reduced output targets.  The cartel will re-submit a production proposal by the end of next month.    
   # A Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Traders call the chance of a Fed funds rate hike virtually zero for this month.  Odds of a December increase are pegged at around 70 percent.  
   # November 9th looks to be a busy day for traders.  All markets will digest election results and grains will have the added influence of a USDA crop report.  

***** Live cattle futures down $0.80 to $1.10; feeders flat to $1.42 lower; hogs up $0.40 to $1.15. ***** 

   # High slaughter and heavy market weights combine to keep beef production elevated.  Strong packer margins should at least continue to keep the pipeline from bulging.    
   # Hog futures enjoy some newfound technical momentum and are on track for the best two-week gains since March.  Up next to provide resistance to the move is the December contract’s 50-day moving average, which is just 50 cents above today’s settlement.