AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, October 31, 2016
***** Corn futures off 2 3/4 cents at the break; soybeans down 4 3/4 to 5 3/4; Chicago wheat up 1 to 1 1/4. *****

   # Wheat futures enjoy early support from a weather forecast that has another dry week in store for the U.S. Plains.  The drought monitor shows pockets of dryness expanding in Kansas and nearly entirely overtaking South Dakota.  
   # CFTC's Friday Commitments of Traders report showed funds adding a small amount of both longs and shorts to leave the net-short at 69,000 contracts of corn.  Managed money's net wheat short grew to 123,000 contracts while the net-long soybean position was upped to 99,000 contracts.  
   # Farmers in Brazil should hit the halfway mark on soybean plantings this week.  
Current planting pace is not far ahead of normal for the entire country, but rapid progress in states like Mato Grosso make up for a slower going in wetter southern states like Rio Grande do Sul.
   # The afternoon Crop Progress report is expected to show U.S. corn harvest at two-thirds complete.  Soybeans should be around 85 percent cut.  
   # Three sales flashed across the USDA's daily export reporting system this morning: 264,000 tons of soybeans sold to China; 100,973 tons of corn to Barbados; 111,000 tons of sorghum to an unknown buyer.      
   # Analysts will be out with their predictions for the November 9 crop reports this week.  A loosely-formed consensus expects another small reduction to the current 173.4 bushel per acre government estimate with an addition anticipated for the 51.4 bpa bean yield.  
   # The dollar is stabilizing somewhat after a big down day on Friday.  A strong third quarter GDP number should have supported chances of a December interest rate hike, but the FBI's announcement that it would re-open the investigation into presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's email use shook markets.   

***** Live cattle futures look to build on technical momentum; hogs in the process of closing weekly chart gap. *****

   # An active and higher cash cattle trade last week helps support cattle futures at the start of this week.  Futures are in the process of making a technical correction with December starting the week with resistance from Friday's $105.95 high.  
   # Hog futures are benefiting from the expectation for pork supply to level off a bit quicker than previously anticipated.  The market's five-month tumble has left prices low enough to spur some additional demand from both the domestic consumer and the world import buyer.