AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, November 01, 2016
***** Corn down 2 to 2 1/4 cents overnight; soybeans off 1/2 to 1 ahead of the break; Chicago wheat lower by 2 to 2 1/2. *****

   # Fresh news is limited for the grains as traders mostly approach markets with some caution ahead of next week’s election-outcome/report-day combo on November 9th.  
   # Industry estimates for the November 9 Crop Production report will start to circulate today after analysts at FC Stone issue their yield predictions.  Informa numbers will be out later in the week with results from the news agency surveys reported by Friday.    
   # Grain traders have an eye on the USDA’s 8:00am daily export sales report.  A sale of 264,000 tons of beans sold to China was announced yesterday.  China remains as active a U.S. bean buyer as hoped, with robust feed demand keeping crush margins in the country strong.  
   # Palm oil futures were down on the Malaysian exchange Tuesday, spilling over to cause some weakness for U.S. soyoil futures.  The edible oils market is still generally strong with tight stocks allowing palm oil prices to have gained about five percent in October.  
   # No rain overnight for the Midwest except for some very light totals collected in central Michigan.  Chances are strong that a broad swath of the central Midwest will have showers and thunderstorms roll through on Wednesday.  The Southern Plains likely stays dry until early next week.  
   # The general theme for South America is wet weather south and dry north.  Heavy recent rains delay soybean plantings in Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.  The major growing-state Mato Grosso, Brazil runs a precipitation shortfall of up to 8 inches over the past month.  
   # Grain bulls are working to defend technical support from December corn’s 100-day moving average.  The $3.59 1/4 high from a bearish reversal made on October 20th stands as resistance.  On the weekly chart, corn futures still need a move to $3.70 before a 50 percent retracement is made from summer low to high.  
   # U.S. treasuries start the new month lower as traders are back to thinking a December Fed funds rate hike is likely.  Heightened market volatility from next week’s election outcome could throw water on those expectations.  The gap between the two presidential candidates has narrowed and there is fresh news to suggest that a close election will end up being contested.        

***** Momentum for cattle is fading after futures finished higher in October for the first time in four; December hogs start with a test of tech resistance from their 50-day MA. *****

   # Gains for beef cutout values failed to spark buyer enthusiasm over cattle futures on Monday.  Traders instead took note of higher slaughters and heavier weights.          
   # Hog futures were able to tack on $4 in October after climbing out of fresh contract lows.  On the fundamental side, slaughters remain high as strong packer margins keep the pipeline flowing.