AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, November 02, 2016
***** Corn futures unchanged ahead of the break; soybeans fractionally higher; wheat up 3/4 to 1 1/2 cent. ***** 

   # Grains are moderately firmer overnight with corn futures having opened a two-cent range, soybeans eight cents, wheat four.  Charts give the best guidance in a market that currently lacks fresh fundamental input. 
   # December corn futures trade under their 20-day moving average after having settled below that mark on only one session in October.  Momentum faded by enough to make for a bearish signal line crossover on the daily MACD yesterday.    
   # FC Stone issued a new set of crop predictions, calling corn yield 175.3 bushels per acre versus USDA 173.4 and bean yield 52.8 versus 51.4.  More estimates will trickle out through the rest of the week with most likely looking for USDA to trim the corn yield and bump up the beans.  
   # Showers and thunderstorms are likely to pop up in the center Midwest today before the regions turns dry for about 10 days.  The best chances for rain in the Southern Plains come today.  
   # Fund traders used yesterday’s session to take profit on longs and pare risk ahead of the election/report day.  Managed money is estimated net-short corn by 70,000 contracts, net-long soybeans by 85,000.     
   # A continued retreat for oil futures helps to weigh on the broad commodity space.  Numbers from the American Petroleum Institute included a U.S. oil stocks count that grew by 9.3 million barrels last week.  Weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration will be reported later this morning.  
   # Gasoline futures could not hold onto what was initially a 15 percent price jump after an explosion at a major pipeline in Alabama.  The operator of the pipeline expects gasoline flow to be disrupted through the rest of the week. 
   # The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting today; a Fed funds rate hike is not expected.  Odds for a December increase are currently back and forth around 70 percent.   

***** Cattle futures resume correction as fundamentals improve slowly; a technical and spread trade defines action for hogs. *****  

   # Beef wholesale gains on Tuesday reflected some optimism over consumer demand potential heading into the new month.  Buyer enthusiasm is still somewhat dampened by a slaughter pace that remains stubbornly high and by weights that are inching up.
   # Hogs were turned away by technical selling on Tuesday but futures remain in a corrective uptrend.  Monday’s $48.15 high serves resistance to the December contract along with its 50-day moving average.