AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, November 03, 2016
***** Corn futures up 1 1/2 across the curve; soybeans higher by 3 cents; Chicago wheat down 2 to 2 1/2. ***** 

   # Grains trade light volume overnight, so far in reverse direction than yesterday with corn and beans up, wheat lower.  Traders in Chicago are sleeping in this morning.  
   # Another good export sales report: 1.47 million tons of corn versus expectations of around 1 million; 2.51 million tons of soybeans versus a 1.5 million average guess.  
   # Market participants wait to see additional crop production estimates from the industry players. FC STONE was out earlier in the week looking for corn and soybean yields that top the USDA’s current projections.  Numbers from Informa may circulate today before the newswires release survey results before the weekend.   
   # Heavy rains in Argentina are making it harder for farmers there to put row crops into the ground.  More than 1 million acres are estimated to have been flooded.  Some will likely forgo plans to plant corn and sow soybeans instead.   
   # USDA’s Illinois Cash Grain Prices report yesterday listed the central Illinois average corn basis at 19 cents under December futures, soybeans 40 under the January.  The Interior Iowa report had corn and soybean basis values at 46 and 87 under, respectively.  
   # The odds of a Fed interest rate hike in December has climbed to near 80 percent after this week’s FOMC meeting wrapped up with some dovish comments from the involved central bankers.  Tuesday’s election could certainly come to influence the Fed’s decision next month.  
   # Asian palm oil prices inched higher on Thursday but did not do much to inspire U.S. soyoil futures.  Traders were talking about a new biodiesel mandate in Malaysia that would support demand for palm oil.  
   # The Egyptian government changed its currency regime in a decision that now allows the country’s pound to float freely.  Sharp deprecation for the currency may help stabilize the economy, but it will also make imports – of wheat from the U.S., for example – more costly.  
   # Up to an inch of rain was collected throughout the Midwest over the past 24 hours.  Coverage for Illinois was nearly 100 percent.  It should be a dry weekend for most across the Corn Belt.  The best chances for rain in a dry southern Plains region come on Monday.      

***** Cattle futures await guidance from the cash trade; hogs take direction from the charts. ***** 

   # Beef prices are up a little more than $5 over the past week to help support confidence in demand potential for the coming weeks.  Choice cuts are still about 15 percent cheaper than they were a year ago, select 17 percent cheaper.    
   # Hogs futures are working on a trend change that has put $7 dollars back into the December contract since its bottoming out on October 19th.  December hogs face an important test of resistance now that they are up against their 50-day moving average, a market that has not been crossed since June.