AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, November 07, 2016
***** Corn futures down fractionally; soybeans up 7 1/2 cents ahead of the morning break; Chicago wheat up fractionally. *****

   # Soybean futures benefit from a risk-on trade that is developing across global markets at the start of the week.  Stocks and the dollar find support from lowered anxiety related to Tuesday’s election.
   # FBI Director James Comey informed Congress yesterday that there would be no change to his organization’s previous recommendation that no charges should be filed against Hillary Clinton for her mishandling of classified materials.
   # Markets will digest election outcomes on Wednesday, the same day that the grains price in a fresh crop report.  Analysts are biased toward looking for a fractional reduction to USDA’s October corn yield estimate of 173.4 bushels per acre, but the range of predictions is 171.4 – 175.3.  The average guess is bean yield at 52 bpa versus 51.4 last month.
   # January soybean futures are bouncing from their 20-day moving average and working on resistance from the $10-mark.  The $10.20 1/4 - $10.31 range likely provides some pushback to a move up while increased buying interest would be found near last week’s $9.83 low.  
   # Next year’s planting plans are being discussed more fervently lately.  Some analysts have predicted that corn acres could drop by as much as 6.5 million acres from the 94.5 million planted this past season.  The latest estimates from Informa look for corn plantings down to near 91 million acres with soybean area of around 88.5 million acres.  A summer survey of growers from Farm Futures suggested that a corn to soybean acres switch would stay inside 1.5 million acres.  
   # Wheat growers in the Southern Plains were glad to see the forecast come true to bring rains to region last night.  Totals were mostly under an inch in Oklahoma and Kansas, where farmers will need more moisture before the winter crops go dormant.  
   # Weather for the contiguous U.S. should run warm and dry this week.  The expected development of scattered showers across Brazil is welcomed by growers there.  Many farmers in Argentina will wish for the skies to clear up after a very wet couple of weeks.    

***** Cattle futures to feature technical and spread trading at the start of the week; hog futures losing steam after late-October rally. ***** 

   # Cash cattle were trading steady to $1 higher last week, not featuring enough strength to spark much futures buying.  December live cattle futures open with support from their 20-day moving average, but there may not be enough interest there to catch the contract as it moves down toward an open gap at $100.12 - $100.37.
   # Hog slaughters are up as packers with $50 margins encourage plants to run at full capacity.  Retail demand remains robust, but pork is facing plenty of competition from cheap beef and white meats.