AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, November 09, 2016
***** Corn futures down 2 1/2 cents ahead of the break; soybeans down 4 to 5; Chicago wheat off 3 to 5. ***** 

   # It is a risk-off trade for global markets as investors digest the U.S. election results.  Grains trade with some heightened volatility, but not with near as much as stocks, bonds, and currencies do.
   # Dow stock index futures were off by as much as 875 points late Tuesday night.  They have recovered more than half of that loss but still trade considerably weaker with investors somewhat uncertain about all that will come along with a new president’s influence on the market.  
   # The agricultural industry will keep a close eye on post-election developments regarding President-Elect Trump’s stance on trade items that include the Trans Pacific Partnership, NAFTA, and imports from China.
   # Tough to think about switching focus away from the election results, but grain traders will have a crop report to take in today.  USDA updates its Crop Production assessments, including yield estimates that analysts on average expect will be about 0.2 bushels per acre lower for corn, 0.6 higher for beans.
   # The November crop report should be put behind us quickly, with market participants left to return their focus to the ways that these big crops will be used.  High attention will continue to be given to the weekly updates on export shipments and sales, corn ethanol grind, soybean crush, etc.          

***** Cattle futures look to find direction from cash and wholesale activity; hog futures feature active spread and technical trade. *****

   # Cattle futures should find some guidance from a cash market that starts to trade today.  December cattle start today’s session with a test of the 50-day moving average, a point that may be difficult to cross unless volatility in the rest of the ag space subsides.  
   # A spread and technical trade has defined activity for hog futures so far this week.  Hedge and index funds have been rolling their positions into the deferred contracts.  December hogs are still the most-held contract and are currently back and forth between support and resistance from their 10- and 50-day moving averages.