AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, November 10, 2016
***** Corn up 2 to 2 3/4 cents; soybeans up 7 to 8; Chicago wheat down 1 3/4 to 3. *****
   # Early support for the soy complex was given by an Asian palm oil market that rallied to another new two-year high.  A monthly production report found output down in second-most producer Malaysia last month. 
   # Spillover influence from the election was still being felt by the grains today.  Investors were seen rotating capital into the commodity space as they make bets on rising inflation.  Soybeans are starting to act like the speculative darling they are known to be.  Copper is a top post-election performer with futures on the metal having gained seven percent in two sessions.  
   # The oil market remains defensive and was pressured by an uptick of selling today after a report showing record production from OPEC last month.  Nearby WTI crude futures are down about 15 percent from their October 19 high.    
   # Weekly soybean sales were disappointing at 1 million tons versus expectations of up about 2 million and last week’s tally at 2.5 million.  Year-to-date soybean sales are still running strong at about 67 percent of the current USDA target for 2016/17.  
   # It wasn’t a phenomenal export report for soybeans this week, but the numbers were followed up by a daily sales announcement of 126,000 tons sold to China.  Also reported for daily sales was 140,000 tons of corn sold to Saudi Arabia.  
   # The latest Conab report confirmed that Brazil’s row crop season is mostly off to a good start.  Dry weather remains a slight worry in places where soil moisture deficits are still maintained from their fall/winter months.  Conab expects soybean exports to total 57 million tons.  USDA is a bit more optimistic for Brazil at 58.4 million. 
   # The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched in new all-time highs, not long after Dow futures dipped 875 points at one point on Tuesday night.  Bank stocks led the major indexes higher as traders bet on the new administration being less aggressive on the regulatory front.  

***** Live cattle futures up $0.57 to $1.02; feeders higher by $0.60 to $0.70; hogs gain $0.32 to $0.82. ****​*

   # Livestock markets continue to face the headwind of historically-high meat supplies.  The amount of product flowing through the pipeline simply outstrips solid-enough domestic consumption and improved export demand.  That said, cattle and hog prices will benefit if it is true that the broad commodity market has turned a corner.  Investors will look to a beaten up livestock space to find value as their money rotates into the commodity sector as a whole.