AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, November 11, 2016
***** Corn futures down 1 1/2; soybeans rally 16; Chicago wheat up 2. ***** 

   # U.S. soy futures enjoy further strength this morning with help from a two-percent rally for bean futures on China’s Dalian exchange and from another big day for Asian palm oil markets.  
   # Open interest climbed on a high volume day Thursday as traders made new bets on the grains.  Corn open interest was up 18,000 contracts while 6,300 new soybean contracts were opened.
   # The overnight move puts January soybean futures back above $10 but the contract remains inside Thursday’s $9.89 to $10.19 range.  The October high at $10.31 serves as a point of key resistance with the six-month low at $9.40 1/4 lending potential support.  
   # Wet weather has put farmers in Argentina behind on soybean plantings.  The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated progress at 10.9 percent versus 20 percent a year ago.  Soybean acreage in Argentina is expected to drop 2.5 percent this year, in part due to export tax considerations.
   # Wheat futures remain stuck in a tight trading range, but they are taking on greater upside potential as prices outside the U.S. rise.  Two tenders from Egypt this week show improved Black Sea offer levels.  
   # All of Colorado is colored in on the drought monitor to indicate that the state suffers from either “Abnormally Dry” conditions or “Moderate Drought.”  Colorado planted about 4.5 percent of total U.S. wheat acres in 2106.  
   # Only small chances for rain come late next week for wheat growers throughout a dry Southern Plains region.  Indeed, most of the country should stay dry and warm for at least the next 7 days.  
   # The dollar index pauses this morning after a four-day climb.  Investors had altered their pre-election conceptions and decided that the new Trump administration could bring about better growth potential and, therefore, higher interest rates.     

***** Cattle futures gaining upside momentum; hog market choppy and featuring active spreading. ***** 

   # Cattle traders are looking to see what side of the $104 traded earlier this week in the cash maker that any deals made today might land.  Beef export sales were strong this week to help support the futures market.  February live cattle are now the most-held futures contract and have last week’s $106.82 high to watch for chart guidance.    
   # Exports were also strong for pork this week.  Mexico remains a top buyer, but that country’s future demand potential is put into question now that the peso has tumbled post-election.