AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Monday, November 14, 2016
***** Corn futures were 3-6 lower; soybeans 2-8 lower; and Chi wheat 9-11 lower. *****

   # The ongoing surge in the Dollar was the dominant theme across the investment spectrum.  The new administration’s policies are expected to be more pro-growth, a feature that is drawing money into the U.S. At the same time, rising deficits are expected to raise rates, increasing interest rates.  And not to be forgotten is the Fed’s expected high in interest rates in December.  
   # Initial weakness in grains was also tied to news out of China.  Regulators are said to be banning brokers from providing margin financing.  That broke Dalian soybean futures, weakened Malaysian palm oil futures, and drove soybeans and other grains lower in the U.S. You’ll remember Friday’s weakness came on rumors about problems with a hedge fund in China. 
   # Soybean export inspections in the U.S. were good last week with 102 mln. bu. inspected.  But the focus on soybeans appears to be stifling corn and wheat shipments, with 24.3 mln. and 7.0 mln. inspected respectively. 
   # A private consultant in Brazil, Ag. Rural, indicated soybean planting is 63% complete.  Arg. is 37% done with corn.
   # Weather in northern Brazil is expected to be mostly showery this week, bringing the first good, consistent rains.  Southern Brazil/Argentina are showery to start the week, but will turn drier into the weekend.    
   # New out of Russia indicates they may have exceeded the winter crop planting target with 17.2 mln. hect. sown.  That could be the largest since 2009.  The condition is thought to be good, with dormancy closing in, but the key will be snow cover to get through winter’s cold temps. 
   # Harvest progress numbers here were about as expected.  Corn harvest is 93% done. Soybean harvest is 97% done.  Winter wheat is 94% planted and 84% emerged.  The good/excellent condition improved 1 point this week, with improvement noted in Texas and Oklahoma.    
   # The new long-range forecasts are a mixed bag, with the Midwest to be mostly a little warmer.  The 6-10 day outlook was still dry across the southern part of the U.S., but the 8-14 day period has potential rain activity showing in the S. Plains. 
   # The NOPA soybean crush number will be released at 11 am tomorrow; the is expecting the Oct. crush to be close to 160.5 mln. bu.

***** Live cattle futures closed $0.10 to $0.27 higher; feeders $1.00 to $1.07 higher; hogs $0.22 to $0.85 lower. *****​

   # Wholesale beef ended lower with choice at $183.92.  There was virtually no cash cattle trade today, but cash prices are expected to be soft if wholesale remains weak.  Feedlot show lists look a little tighter this week, hint numbers may have started their seasonal erosion.  
   # Wholesale pork prices were a little firmer today, with the #2 cutout at $74.66.  Cash hog prices mostly ended a little softer.  Hog supplies continue to be a little larger than packer needs, keeping packer margins unusually wide.