AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, November 15, 2016
***** Corn futures ended 4 higher; soybeans 5-6 higher; and Chi wheat 5-6 higher. *****  
   # The halt to the surge in the Dollar and the equity markets, along with the end of the short term rout in the treasury markets took some of the panic out of the grains Tuesday.  The crude oil rally played a part in the mix as well.  Some will call it turnaround Tuesday, but from our perspective, it appeared to mostly be covering of recently placed shorts in the grains.
   # There’s still some talk about the moves Chinese regulators took in their futures markets, but even there, calm seemed to prevail.  Looking forward though, their moves may be a forewarning of interference that could occur at any time in the future if they feel their markets are getting a little over-heated.  
   # The soybean market continues to get a steady dose of export news with a couple of cargoes of soybeans reported sold to China and a couple to unknown destination.  The activity may shift, with FOB prices for future delivery out of Brazil starting to become more competitive with the U.S.  
   # A private consultant in Brazil, Ag. Rural, indicated soybean planting is 63% complete.  Some see some real early harvest in Brazil before Christmas, with small exports in January, to be followed by more robust shipments in Feb.
   # There was some talk about activity in the wheat export trade Tuesday, but there weren’t any specifics attached to it.  But there does seem to be a steady stream of talk about the U.S. maybe having the best quality wheat in the world.  
   # NOPA reported the October crush at their members was 164.6 mln. bu., the 3rd largest on record.  It was 4 mln. larger than expected. It lays the groundwork for the national number to be the largest on record.
   # Northern Brazil is expected to be mostly showery this week, bringing the first good, consistent rains.  Southern Brazil/Argentina are showery to start the week, but will turn drier from midweek into the weekend.    
   # New out of Russia indicates they may have exceeded the winter crop planting target with 17.2 mln. hect. sown.  That could be the largest since 2009.  The condition is thought to be good, with dormancy closing in, but the key will be snow cover to get through winter’s cold temps. 
   # The new long-range forecasts are a mixed bag, with the Midwest to be mostly a little warmer.  The 6-10 day outlook was slightly wetter for the G. Plains, but turned a little drier again in the 8-14 period.  The southeastern U.S. is expected to stay normal/dry. 
   # Crude oil prices were the biggest mover Tuesday.  Overnight talk started to surface that OPEC may be closing in on an agreement to possibly rein in  output.  But like the forex and financial markets, the moves might have mostly been short covering instead of new buying.  If so, look for any gains to possibly stall quickly.
   # Yesterday’s CFTC data showed the big trading funds got even shorter going into the election.  The corn data indicated they had liquidated short positions and added some long positions as of last Tuesday.  And they added to soybean long positions, possibly adding to the short term weakness after the election and USDA reports.

***** Live cattle futures closed $0.10 lower to $0.75 higher; feeders $0.32 to $0.05 higher; hogs $0.62 to $0.77 lower. ***** 

   # Wholesale beef ended slightly lower with choice at $183.11.  There was virtually no cash cattle trade today, but cash prices are expected to be soft if wholesale remains weak. 
   # Wholesale pork prices were a slightly lower, with the #2 cutout at $74.14.  Cash hog prices mostly ended a little softer.  Hog supplies continue to be a little larger than packer needs, keeping packer margins unusually wide.